Crime in the US remained relatively unchanged last year, dropping by a mere two-tenths of 1 percent, a report released on Monday by the FBI shows.
Despite a sharp increase in homicides in Los Angeles, last year was the third straight year that serious violent and property crime remained essentially flat, after falling sharply during the 1990s.
But criminal justice experts warned that a series of factors could cause crime to start increasing again rapidly. Among those factors are the downturn in the economy, cutbacks in police forces and the courts because of budget shortfalls, a growing number of inmates returning home from prison and a larger number of teenagers.
In fact, in some cities -- including Portland, Oregon and Seattle, Washington -- crime is up sharply in the first five months of this year.
The FBI report also found an increase in murder in some big cities last year, particularly Los Angeles, which led the nation with 654 homicides last year, up from 588 in 2001. Chicago had 648 homicides, down from 666, and New York City had 590, a drop from 660.
The report also found that overall crime in New York City fell 4.8 percent last year, making New York one of the safest large cities in the country. Car theft and burglaries also declined significantly in New York.
The Bloomberg administration released figures last week showing that major crime overall has fallen 8 percent this year from the same period last year.
James Alan Fox, a professor of criminal justice at Northeastern University, said the FBI report could be seen as a case of "No news is good news."
"Given the fact that there are a lot of factors that could push crime upward and there was essentially no change, that is good news in itself," said Fox, an expert on crime statistics.
But if the federal government, states and cities continue to cut spending for the police, prisons and the courts because of budget deficits, Fox said, "This could create a worrisome picture."
"I wouldn't bet on crime remaining stable if things continue as they are," he said. "It may be just a matter of time."
The FBI report measures the number of arrests by the police for seven serious crimes: murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft. Monday's report, part of what is known as the Uniform Crime Reports, is a preliminary one for last year. The final report, to be issued in the fall, will contain figures on crime rates measured by population, a more accurate way to gauge crime.
The flat overall crime figures for last year obscured some changes in individual types of crimes and some variation by region.
Murder, for example, rose eight-tenths of a percent last year from 2001, and rape jumped 4 percent. Among property crimes, burglary rose 1.5 percent and motor vehicle theft increased 1.2 percent.
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