Analysts expect Taiwan to post a fresh billion-dollar trade surplus for August, though a belated import recovery driven in part by the island's export boom would cap the trade gap's magnitude, a Reuters poll showed.
The survey forecast an August surplus of US$1.052 billion -- 20.5 percent below the August 1998 year-earlier surplus but more than double the US$490 million surplus recorded in July 1999.
Official data for August trade is to be issued by the Finance Ministry today.
The one overseas and nine local economists surveyed by Reuters concurred that Asia's economic revival gave support to Taiwan's fast-recovering economy, fueling the island's exports and imports since the second quarter.
The survey projected an average 7.6 percent year-on-year rise for August exports, and a 12 percent rise for imports.
July saw a trade surplus of US$490 million, with exports at US$9.987.5 billion and imports at US$9.498.1 billion.
The economists said Taiwan's export recovery finally was driving imports, with several months of surging overseas demand for Taiwan goods now accelerating imports of raw materials and components -- especially electronics parts. Capital imports also were seen surging in August as Taiwan primes its export machine.
The gathering import recovery was seen capping the surplus.
"This [import rise] has clipped out a considerable sum from what we had gained in exports," said Core Pacific Securities economist Christine Wu.
The economists also cited a low year-earlier comparative base for the year-on-year shrinkage of the August surplus. Imports in August 1998 totalled US$8.308 billion.
"In August last year, slumping economic conditions blamed on Asia's financial turmoil had cut down [Taiwan's] imports, lowering the year-earlier base," said Taiwan Securities Investment Advisory economist Chuang Ming-shu.
The economists foresaw brisk exports in both the third and the fourth quarters, with information and technology products leading all exports as the locomotive of Taiwan's trade-oriented economy.
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