Taiwan’s population could drop to fewer than 15 million by 2070, which would be more than 8 million fewer people than today, the National Development Council (NDC) estimated.
Every two years, the council releases estimates on the country’s projected population and birthrate for the following 50 years, comparing fertility scenarios based on the latest household registration data.
According to its latest report released in August, under the medium-term assumption that each woman has only one child in her lifetime, Taiwan’s total population would drop from 23.4 million this year to 14.97 million in 2070, a decrease of 8.44 million.
Photo: Liu Hsin-de, Taipei Times
The working-age population would decrease by 9.2 million people and would account for an estimated 46.6 percent of the population, the report said.
The population of children under 14 would decrease by 1.71 million, the working-age population — or those aged 15 to 64 — would decrease by 9.2 million, while the number of people aged 65 or older would increase by 2.48 million, it said.
About one-quarter of the countries and regions worldwide have or are about to enter negative population growth, including Japan, South Korea, China and Thailand, the NDC said.
Taiwan would become a “super-aged society” next year, meaning that more than 20 percent of its population would be 65 or older, it said, adding that 40 countries and regions around the world are already super-aged societies, including Japan, Germany and France.
Taiwan’s dependency ratio — the number of children and elderly people who are care-dependent, compared with the number of non-dependent adults — would reach 100 percent by 2059, if current demographic trends continue, it said.
The dependency ratio today is 44.7 percent.
Based on current estimates, Taiwan’s dependency ratio would be 100 percent in 2059 and 114.6 percent in 2070, when every group of 100 working-age people would need to care for 100 elderly people, or 14 children, it said.
Hsieh Chia-yi (謝佳宜) director of the NDC’s department of human resources development, said that the council is implementing measures to respond to the declining and aging population.
The NDC would deliberate on amendments to expand subsidies for in vitro fertilization, increase childcare leave for working mothers and introduce more smart technology into healthcare systems to meet increasing medical-care needs.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Labor said it has taken measures to ease a domestic labor shortage, encouraging the private sector to hire women, middle-aged and elderly people, migrant workers and international graduates.
To boost the labor participation rate among women, the ministry said that last year it implemented a program to promote re-employment of women, with the goal of adding 140,000 to the workforce within three years.
Under the program, employers can apply for a monthly “flextime bonus” of NT$3,000 (US$92.52) for up to 12 months from the program, if they approve flexible work hours for a previously displaced female worker who was recruited via a public employment service institution and hired by the employer for at least one month.
The ministry said it also promotes delayed retirement and continued employment of middle-aged and elderly workers, in accordance with the Middle-aged and Elderly Employment Promotion Act (中高齡者及高齡者就業促進法).
The goal is to increase the middle-aged and elderly workforce by 300,000 people within three years.
As of September, the scheme had assisted 105,561 middle-aged and elderly workers to secure employment, it said.
The ministry said it also has launched the Long-term Retention of Migrant Workers Program, under which, migrant workers who have worked in Taiwan for at least six years, or international students who have obtained an associate degree or above in Taiwan, could stay in Taiwan for a mid-level skilled job, if they have qualified expertise and earn a decent salary.
The ministry permits international graduates to work at mid-level skilled jobs in the hotel industry, while other jobs such as hospital aides, warehouse personnel, truck drivers, driver assistants, bus drivers and bus security guards to be opened soon, with regulatory amendments to be proposed by the end of the year.
Considering Taiwan’s shrinking workforce and top-class education resources invested in international students, the ministry said it is also planning to set up a work permit mechanism for graduated international students to broaden international talent retention.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs said that it hopes to alleviate labor shortage by introducing artificial intelligence (AI) applications to industries.
The Industrial Development Administration in August launched a program in collaboration with Microsoft and Amazon.com to train AI talent for industries.
The classes’ focus on innovation and the application of generative AI in manufacturing, with key industries in central and southern Taiwan, including chemical engineering, textile, machine tools, bicycles and steel, being explored, it said.
While the program is projected to train AI talent for about 300 companies, more AI classes for industry players have begun to accelerate the application of AI in industries, it added.
The ministry in August published a preview of amendments to the Act for Industrial Innovation to apply to AI, with the deductible expenditure increased from NT$1 billion to NT$1.8 billion to facilitate AI applications in industries.
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