Wed, Mar 15, 2023 page3

• Beijing to focus on unification tactics: expert

  ‘WINNING HEARTS’: The CCP will seek to enhance communication with the KMT and lure Taiwanese by offering incentives, Chao Chun-shan said

  • By Shelley Shan / Staff reporter
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  Beijing is expected to switch its policy focus from opposing Taiwanese independence to facilitating unification with China before Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) ends his third term in 2028, a cross-strait affairs expert told a news conference at the National Policy Foundation in Taipei yesterday.

  A Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) think tank, the foundation held the event to address the ramifications of the annual plenary sessions of China’s National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, which ended yesterday.

  “Between now and 2027, Beijing would adopt a ‘two-step approach’ toward unification,” said Chao Chun-shan (趙春山), an emeritus professor at the Institute of China Studies at Tamkang University.

  

  From left, National Chengchi University associate professor Huang Kwei-bo, National Policy Foundation national security group convener Yang Chen-wu, Tamkang University Institute of China Studies professor emeritus Chao Chun-shan and Straits Economic and Cultural Interchange Association secretary-general Deng Tai-hsien attend a news conference at the foundation in Taipei yesterday.

  Photo: CNA

  Before a new Taiwanese president takes office on May 20 next year, Beijing would downplay its relations with President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) administration and focus on preventing external influences from interfering in cross-strait affairs, Chao said.

  The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime would also enhance communication with the KMT and young people in Taiwan, Chao said, adding that it would try to win the hearts of Taiwanese — in Taiwan or in China — by offering incentives and benefits.

  After a new Taiwanese president takes office, China would implement two possible plans, Chao said.

  “If the new president opposes Taiwanese independence and accepts the so-called ‘1992 consensus,’ China would restore dialogue with Taiwan,” he said. “If they did not, Beijing would facilitate unification using non-peaceful means, including economic blockades and military threats.”

  To downplay its relations with the Democratic Progressive Party government, Beijing is likely to extradite a Taiwanese soldier who last week deserted his post in Kinmen County’s Erdan Islet (二膽) and went to China to avoid escalating the incident into a major political event, Chao said.

  The Chinese National Congress and Central Committee are decisionmaking bodies of the CCP, while the annual plenary sessions of the National People’s Congress and of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference marked the beginning of Xi’s third term following a personnel reshuffle, he said.

  “Internally, China would focus on stabilizing the economy and society in the post-pandemic era,” Chao said. “As for foreign policy, it would focus on strategic competition with the US. It could directly confront the US government on issues that are related to its core interests. However, it would leave room for cooperation with the US on non-security-related issues.”

  Addressing a recent article in The Economist quoting an expert who said that China would not seek a quick end if it launches a war with Taiwan, Chao said that he disagreed with the assessment.

  “China has learned its lesson from the Russia-Ukraine war and the democratic uprising in Hong Kong. If it cannot end a war with Taiwan as quickly as possible, the consequences would be greater,” he said.

  Huang Kwei-bo (黃奎博), an associate professor at National Chengchi University’s Department of Diplomacy, said that one cannot expect cross-strait exchanges to be restored at the government level, even if China has sought to increase exchanges with the private sector.

  “The CCP is using both soft and hard strategies on Taiwan: increasing exchanges in the private sector, while flying military aircraft around our airspace,” Huang said.

  China is also vague about “using a comprehensive strategic plan to tackle the issue of Taiwan in the new era,” Huang said, adding that the content of such a plan could only be obtained through further exchanges.

  Beijing has in the past two years spent more time preventing external forces from interfering in cross-strait affairs than crushing Taiwanese independence voices, as it has realized that the US-led Western alliance would hinder unification.

  “They are particularly sensitive to Taiwan’s pursuit of exchanges with other countries through parliamentary diplomacy, especially its relationship with the US Congress,” Huang said. “Pro-Taiwan congressional members are very likely to propose bills supporting Taiwan, and the CCP is concerned that these bills would further elevate the state of diplomacy between Taiwan and the US.”
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