Sun, Nov 13, 2022 page3

• Biden faces pressure on China, Taiwan: analysts

  REPUBLICAN FORCE: Pushing to change the name of Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington could be among measures taken by a new House next year, analysts said

  • Staff Writer, with CNA
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  US President Joe Biden is likely to face more pressure to take a tougher line on China if the Republicans retake the US House of Representatives as expected, but Washington’s support for Taiwan should remain solid regardless, US analysts said.

  After two years of unified Democratic control of Washington, albeit by small margins in the House and Senate, the Democrats are expected to narrowly lose the House when votes are finished being counted from Tuesday’s midterm elections, a result that could raise the stakes in competition between the US and China.

  Biden’s attempts to limit China’s growing influence has grown more fraught, but has received support from Americans and representatives in Congress.

  

  The US Capitol in Washington is pictured on Tuesday morning.

  Photo: AFP

  However, a Republican win in the House would likely result in increased pressure on Biden to take a stronger position on defense and national security, said Ian Easton, senior director of the Project 2049 Institute, a US think tank.

  Republicans “will push for the government to do much more to deal with the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party,” Easton said. “Many Republicans would like to see increased defense spending focused on the China threat.”

  Park Strategies senior vice president Sean King shared a similar view, saying a Republican House would try to “box in or embarrass” Biden whenever it could on China-related matters in an effort to make him “look weak” ahead of his intended 2024 reelection bid.

  “Republicans may try to make Biden appear wobbly on Taiwan, even though he’s actually very strong on the issue,” King said.

  On the Taiwan policy act, which is pending before the House and the Senate, Republicans are sure to “insist on pushing some of the more explicit language” in the bill that the Biden administration wanted to leave out or tone down, King said.

  When the bill cleared the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in September, some of its original clauses — including renaming the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington, requiring Senate approval over envoy appointments to Taipei, and designating the nation a major non-NATO ally — were either removed or changed following concerns from the White House.

  Removing the clauses was interpreted as an attempt to avoid driving the country’s relationship with China into a downward spiral while continuing to voice support for Taiwan.

  Biden might push the act through a lame-duck session before new representatives take office in January, so that his administration can exercise influence over the final text, King said.

  However, the White House could encounter some practical problems in pushing the bill through before the current Congressional term ends.

  “Given that the bill has been in committee since September, it does not seem likely to pass the current Congress,” E Larus Consulting president Elizabeth Freund Larus said.

  She expects triangular relations between the US, China and Taiwan to continue to deteriorate regardless of the midterm results.

  Chinese officials largely believe that Republicans are more critical of China, so they are likely to increase their “wolf warrior” tactics and rhetoric if the party takes the House and possibly the Senate in January, she said.

  However, analysts appear to agree that the relationship between Taiwan and the US should remain strong regardless of the House and Senate outcomes.

  Given China’s behavior, Americans “may now even more greatly value free Taiwan for what it is than they perhaps once did,” King said.

  “Taipei is a friend while Beijing is not, which is how more and more people here see the two. Taiwan is clearly having a moment in the American consciousness, and the island should make the most of it,” he said.

  Hudson Institute China Center director Miles Yu (余茂春) said he does not expect any meaningful changes in Biden’s Taiwan policy after January.

  “America’s commitment to shared values and Taiwan’s defense is not only rock solid, but also entirely bipartisan,” said Yu, who served as senior China policy and planning adviser to former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo.

  Should Republicans gain control of the House as expected, a series of stronger pro-Taiwan measures are likely to be passed, Easton said.

  Columbia University political science professor Andrew Nathan said the midterm results would not have any direct effect on Taiwan policy one way or another, as policy is crafted mainly by the president’s administration rather than by Congress.
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