China has been facing increased international pressure since Russia invaded Ukraine, Taiwan Thinktank senior fellow Lai I-chung (賴怡忠) told a forum in Taipei yesterday.
Throughout the invasion, problems encountered by the Russian military, warming US-Europe relations, the rising influence of Central and Eastern Europe, and the interruption of the Belt and Road Initiative have all put increased pressure on China, Lai told the forum held by the Strategy and Public Research Institute of Taiwan.
This pressure would be further exacerbated by Russia’s post-invasion economic decline, he said.
Photo: George Tsorng, Taipei Times
China seemed to think that the US wanted Beijing’s help in the Indo-Pacific region, as the US was busy dealing with the Ukraine war, he said.
“You saw media reports in China and Taiwan suggesting this, but nothing of the sort is true,” he said. “The US did not ask for China’s help in the region — it told China not to do anything.”
Recently revealed information show that China knew that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine and asked Moscow to wait until after the Beijing Winter Olympics, Lai added.
“The fact that US intelligence was aware of all of this shows the depth of its knowledge. This is why the US is able to make tough demands when communicating with China,” he said. “China simply has no leverage.”
China’s relationship with the EU might further deteriorate, Lai said, citing countermeasures taken by the EU after China sanctioned Lithuania.
Talks on China’s proposed trade pact with 16 central and eastern European countries have also stagnated, and progress on its Belt and Road Initiative has been destroyed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said.
The heavy sanctions the US is placing on Russia would likely serve as a model for similar actions taken toward China if it attempted to invade Taiwan, he said.
“Ukraine’s experience has demonstrated that Taiwan must not allow a potential conflict with China to become a bilateral Taiwan-China issue only,” he said. “Peace across the Taiwan Strait should be ensured through multilateral arrangements under an international framework.”
Ukraine, with the support of many Middle Eastern friends of the EU, has changed EU policy and provided direct support through multilateral efforts to resist Russian aggression, he said.
Ukraine’s efforts to change EU policy and foster direct, multilateral action against Russia should serve as a model for Taiwan, he said.
Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Wang Ting-yu (王定宇) said that Western policies of “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan could lead to miscalculations by Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平).
“That is a big risk for the international community. The government must caution its international friends about such ambiguity with regards to Taiwan,” he added.
Other participants called on the government to tackle fake news and misinformation, which China uses to weaken confidence among Taiwanese in their ability to defend themselves, as well as weaken mutual trust between Taiwan and its friends and allies.
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