Sun, Mar 14, 2021 page3

• China to focus on stability at home: analyst

  KEEPING UP PRESSURE: Although Beijing would seek to ease tensions with other neighbors, it would likely continue incursions near Taiwan, an analyst said

  • Staff writer, with CNA
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  Beijing is likely to focus on pursuing stability domestically and abroad, as Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) next year seeks a third term as leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), analysts said on Friday.

  “For Xi, this year is crucial to prepare for next year’s National Party Congress, which would decide his political fate,” Chien Hsin University of Science and Technology professor Yen Chien-fa (顏建發) said at a Taipei forum discussing China’s national policy after the week-long “Two Sessions” concluded on Thursday.

  The symposium’s name refers to the meetings of China’s two major political bodies, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the National People’s Congress, which confirm the direction of government policies.

  “Due to that consideration, stability is everything for Xi. He will not allow his country to fall into turmoil,” Yen said.

  Observers said they expect Xi to vie for a third term as the CCP’s secretary-general at next year’s National Party Congress, a position that is crucial for his re-election as China’s president in 2023.

  It would represent a major departure from a precedent of China’s leaders serving only two five-year terms as CCP chief, and reinforce concerns that Xi has no interest in relinquishing power.

  Beijing’s move to target economic growth above 6 percent, “reform” Hong Kong’s electoral system and increase its defense spending, all announced during the two sessions, showed Xi’s will to maintain stability, Yen said.

  At the same time, Beijing’s attempt to ease tensions with neighboring countries, such as India, Japan and South Korea, could be seen as Xi’s bid to stabilize external relationships, he added.

  The principle of maintaining stability likewise applies to the Taiwan Strait and nearby areas, such as the contested South China Sea and waters around the Japanese-controlled Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台列嶼), which are also claimed by Taiwan, he said.

  “China’s deployment of warplanes and battleships in these areas would remain part of its psychological warfare efforts,” he said. “A hot war is unlikely, because it would be too costly for China. Xi’s ‘Chinese Dream’ would be ruined.”

  Still, Taiwan has to continue to work with the US and other like-minded countries to deter China’s aggression in the region, Yen said.

  Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an assistant professor at National Chung Cheng University, said that Beijing would keep its carrot-and-stick approach in dealing with Taiwan, by providing perks for Taiwanese, while intensifying military pressure on the government.

  Beijing is likely to continue its disinformation campaign against Taiwan to create division in Taiwanese society, hoping to take the nation without firing a bullet after breaking down people’s will to defend their homeland, he said.
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