Taiwan, China and the US must seek ways to clearly and peacefully signal their intentions, and reduce mistrust to prevent conflict amid tensions in the Taiwan Strait, a US policy organization said in a report on Tuesday.
The report, by the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, draws on closed-door virtual discussions on cross-strait issues among academics and former officials from the three nations.
The discussions were hosted by the committee in October and this month.
Participants discussed the tensions caused by military activities in and around Taiwan, the deterioration of US-China relations and practical steps the sides could take to provide “mutual reassurance,” the report said.
They reached several areas of agreement on the issues and possible remedies.
They agreed that the “total cutoff” of communications between Washington and Beijing as well as Taipei and Beijing has led to “substantial amounts of miscommunication, mistrust and miscalculation in the second half of 2020,” significantly raising the risk of conflict.
Taipei and Beijing are “stuck in policy positions that make the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue impossible,” the report said.
Beijing has insisted on the acceptance of the so-called “1992 consensus” or another “one China” formulation as a precondition for talks, while President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has insisted on there being no preconditions for dialogue, it said.
“The lack of trust between the two sides makes neither amenable to moving first in overcoming this significant roadblock,” the report said.
Given the situation, “the urgent task is to find an authoritative cross-Strait signaling mechanism outside of military activities and in the absence of official dialogue,” the report said.
Although leadership speeches and communiques sometimes serve this purpose, they are often not regular or detailed enough to “withstand the crosswinds of current events,” it said.
The participants were optimistic that the incoming administration of US president-elect Joe Biden would help stabilize the cross-strait environment through “consistent and clearly communicated US policies,” but they acknowledged that a return to the pre-2016 “status quo” is unlikely, the report said.
A new “status quo” must “guard avenues for positive-sum cooperation,” even amid cross-strait political deadlock and rising competition between the US and China, it said.
COVID-19 recovery and the protection of people-to-people exchanges between the three sides should be at the forefront of these efforts, the report added.
The committee did not disclose the names of the participants, but said the group has agreed to meet again early next year.
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