The survival and safety of Taiwan is key to the US’ ability to secure freedom and openness in the Indo-Pacific region, former US defense official Randall Schriver said on Monday.
Speaking at an online seminar hosted by the think tank Atlantic Council, Schriver described Taiwan as a “modern-day Asia Fulda Gap” whose fall would be catastrophic for the region.
The Fulda Gap was a region between the borders of East and West Germany where the US and Soviet Union would “most likely clash if war were to start” during the Cold War, Schriver said.
Holding the Fulda Gap was therefore thought to be key to the US’ ability to protect Western Europe, Schriver said, which is the position that Taiwan now holds in the Indo-Pacific region.
If Taiwan were lost to China, it would damage Japan’s ability to protect its islands in the East China Sea and jeopardize peace in the South China Sea, he said.
It could also “greatly complicate” Washington’s ability to be good partners and uphold freedom and openness in Oceania, said Schriver, who was the US assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs from 2018 to last year.
It is this perspective, that Taiwan is key to the security of the Indo-Pacific region, that is driving the current US administration to broadly support Taiwan, he said.
This involves the “normalizing and routinizing” of arms sales, as well as recent high-level visits to Taiwan by top US officials, such as Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar’s visit in August and Undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment Keith Krach’s visit last month, he said.
Asked whether China would invade Taiwan in the next two months while the US is busy with domestic elections and increasing COVID-19 cases, Schriver felt it was unlikely.
Although China uses military tools as a means of coercion and to raise tensions in the region, Schriver said he believed “they’d far prefer to win without fighting if they can.”
Whether an invasion would actually work is also up in the air, as the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would have to transport 100,000-plus soldiers across the Taiwan Strait and hold ground, which it might not be able to manage, despite advancements in its capability, he said.
Another consideration for the PLA would be the US, as it would be risky for it to assume that Washington would not intervene in a possible attack, Schriver said.
“I think it’s unthinkable that the US would do nothing,” he added.
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