The landslide re-election of President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) underscores Taiwanese’s embrace of an identity distinct from China — a shift that the communist leaders of China refuse to accept.
It is a contradiction that would keep Taiwan’s 23 million people at odds with its much larger neighbor for the foreseeable future and put increasing strains on Beijing’s “one China” principle, which holds that Taiwan and China are part of one country.
Tsai, of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), on Saturday swept to a second four-year term with 57 percent of the vote. Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) presidential candidate, tallied 39 percent, while People First Party Chairman and the party’s candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜) got 4 percent.
Photo: Liu Hsin-de, Taipei Times
The question for the next four years is whether the governments on both sides of the Taiwan Strait will stay the course or escalate their battle of wills.
China might step up its campaign to try to isolate Taiwan diplomatically and economically, although it might also be rethinking that approach after efforts to do so during Tsai’s first term only seemed to build support for her at home.
Her big win could embolden some in the DPP to look for ways to nudge Taiwan toward formal independence from China, the party’s official goal; but even symbolic steps would anger China and could invite retaliation, and Tsai herself has shown no signs of going down that path.
In the Chinese Civil War between the KMT under Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) and Mao Zedong’s (毛澤東) Communists for control of China after World War II, the communists triumphed in 1949, and Chiang retreated to Taiwan, where he set up a rival government that he ran with an iron fist while harboring hopes of taking back the entire country from the communists.
That is no longer a realistic goal, and with each passing decade, Chiang’s dream has been replaced by a growing sense that Taiwan is not a part of China, particularly among the younger generations.
They see their home as a separate entity with its own democratic ideals and do not want to be subsumed by China and the Chinese Communist Party.
The long-running and at times violent pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong that started in June last year reinforced that sentiment.
Early last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) proposed talks with Taiwan on joining China under a “one country, two systems” framework similar to the one that governs Hong Kong, the former British colony returned to China in 1997.
Most Taiwanese oppose the idea, and Tsai capitalized politically on the Hong Kong protests, saying they illustrate why “one country, two systems” does not work.
DPP Deputy Secretary-General Lin Fei-fan (林飛帆) last month said that discussion on constitutional change could start in a second Tsai term.
That could include changing the flag or the definition of the Republic of China’s territory to include just Taiwan, rather than both the island and the mainland, although the party does not advocate those changes.
China’s official Xinhua news agency said in a commentary on the election that China has a full policy toolbox to curb Taiwanese independence activities and benefit Taiwanese “compatriots.”
Tsai focused in her campaign on preserving Taiwan’s democracy rather than any fundamental change to the nation’s political status.
That approach pleases Dong Yu-hsin, a 23-year-old nonprofit worker.
“Although we can say in hard terms Taiwan is Taiwan and China is China ... of course we don’t want a war or anything worse than now,” he said. “I hope Tsai can keep her perspective on autonomy and uphold today’s ‘status quo.’”
Like many Taiwanese, he likes things the way they are and does not want to rock the boat with China.
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