President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would beat Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) presidential candidate, by 18.3 percentage points in a head-to-head race, a poll released yesterday by the Green Party Taiwan showed.
Tsai’s lead would be difficult to reverse, as only 16.5 percent of respondents said they were undecided on which candidate to vote for, the party said.
Analysis showed that Tsai has a lead over Han in almost all age groups, especially among younger voters.
Among voters in their 20s, 73.1 percent support Tsai, compared with 8.1 percent who support Han, the poll found.
Of voters who identify themselves as pro-Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), 93.7 percent support Tsai and 1.5 percent support Han, it found.
Of those who identify as pro-KMT, 73.4 percent support Han and 13.5 percent support Tsai, it showed.
Asked who they think have a greater chance of winning the presidential election in January, 61 percent said Tsai, compared with 25.8 percent who said Han.
Even among KMT supporters, 35 percent said that Han would lose the election.
Asked about a new time restriction introduced last month to the KMT-controlled Kaohsiung City Council that requires councilors to draw lots to question Han, 56.7 percent of respondents said they disapprove of the rule, compared with 29.7 percent who expressed support for it.
Regarding the party ballot, which would determine the number of legislative-at-large seats each party can win, 34.5 percent said they would vote for the KMT, 25.1 percent said the DPP, 12.1 percent said the Taiwan People’s Party and 8 percent said the New Power Party.
According to the poll, 2.2 percent said they would vote for the People First Party, 1.8 percent for the Green Party Taiwan and 1.2 percent the Taiwan Statebuilding Party.
The poll collected 1,021 valid samples via landline and cellphone interviews from 4pm to 10pm on Tuesday. The results were weighted to fit the population profile. The poll has a confidence level of 95 percent and a margin of error of 3.07 percentage points.
A survey released last week by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation found that Tsai would garner 53.6 percent of votes in a one-on-one race, while Han would win 30.9 percent, with 14.8 percent of respondents saying they were undecided.
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