Mon, Sep 30, 2019 page3

• FEATURE: Reviewing options for Taiwan’s diplomatic policy

  • By Lin Chia-nan / Staff reporter
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  What steps Taiwan should take to prevent losing more diplomatic allies is inviting questions and suggestions from a host of analysts and insiders.

  The Solomon Islands and Kiribati broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan on Sept. 16 and 20 respectively, reducing the Republic of China’s (ROC) allies to 15. The Solomon Islands established diplomatic relations with Beijing on Sept. 21, while Kiribati resumed relations with Beijing on Friday.

  “It always hurts to lose one more ally,” a government official speaking on condition of anonymity told the Taipei Times after the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ news conference on Sept. 20 announcing the termination of Taiwan-Kiribati relations. “No official wants to be the person who has to remove a former ally’s flag.”

  

  A woman walks past the flags of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in the foyer of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Taipei on Sept. 20.

  Photo: CNA

  The US helped as it could, but it has no formal embassies in the two Pacific island nations, another official said anonymously, adding that China’s money diplomacy and expansive aggression remain the Taiwan’s primary diplomatic challenges.

  Since President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) took office on May 20, 2016, Taiwan’s relations with China and the US have had opposite trajectories.

  For example, US President Donald Trump’s administration continues to approve arms sales to Taiwan, including a recent package of 66 F-16V fighter jets, while National Security Council Secretary-General David Lee (李大維) in May met with then-US security adviser John Bolton in Washington, the first such meeting after the US cut ties with the ROC in 1979.

  However, Taiwan has lost seven allies in three years without adding a new one.

  Tsai, seeking re-election in January, attributed the diplomatic setbacks to China’s obstructionism, while continuing to hail Taiwan-US relations as the best ever.

  A poll released by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation on Tuesday found that 52.9 percent of respondents do not worry about losing more allies, up from 47.6 percent in June 2017.

  Despite the apparent apathy about diplomatic losses, fear of a “zero ally” scenario and calls for policy change have grown.

  Yen Chen-shen (嚴震生), a research fellow at National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations, said the number of allies might drop to single digits if the government does not stop or reverse the downward trend.

  China’s money diplomacy is not the only factor in the losses, as Beijing is extending its strategic influence beyond the first island chain through other means, he said.

  Although the US and Australia have defended Taiwan’s allies under their own geopolitical considerations, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati ignored their warnings, which should serve as a signal for Taiwan, he said.

  Asked if the US’ influence in the Pacific is fading, Yen said that Pacific nations care a lot about global warming and rising sea levels, but the US has cut off some funding for related research under Trump’s leadership, souring bilateral relations with the US.

  Australia appears reluctant to curtail its coal production, while its overbearing gestures in particular are not welcomed by the Solomon Islands government, Yen said.

  China is more willing to address the issue of global warming, despite its extravagant consumption of fossil fuels, he said.

  While the US has passed several pro-Taiwan bills, such as the Taiwan Travel Act, which allows visits of US and Taiwanese officials, Tsai is still unable to visit Washington, and her stopovers in the US are only made in connection to diplomatic trips to allied nations, he said.

  As for the US re-establishing formal ties with Taiwan, he said Washington’s “one China” policy remains a legal barrier, and Washington has warned Taiwan and China not to unilaterally change the cross-strait “status quo.”

  If the US were to change the “status quo” by upgrading ties with Taipei to a semi-official level, it would have difficulty justifying its defense of Taiwan, giving China the excuse to use force against Taiwan, he said.

  Pro-Taiwan politicians are in the majority in Trump’s administration, but Trump makes the final decisions, and business interests would be his primary concern if he is re-elected next year, Yen said.

  Under these circumstances, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration cannot just blame China for diplomatic losses without striving for a diplomatic truce, he said.

  He thinks the government should hold a national conference on diplomatic policy, and consider the following issues:

  ‧ If the ROC still needs formal ties, how should it stem the hemorrage of allies?

  ‧ If it is unwilling to sit on the fence, how can it adopt a more offensive strategy to gain the advantage?

  ‧ If in the end no other nation diplomatically recognizes the ROC, should the government still provide economic aid to developing countries?

  “In reality, you cannot live without China,” especially when many Taiwanese with doctorates have to work in China due to limited job opportunities at home, he said.

  The DPP could consider utilizing the so-called “1992 consensus” as a bargaining chip to negotiate with the Chinese government and come up with a better consensus to protect Taiwan’s interests, Yen said.

  The government should have some confidence in itself, he added.

  It could require China to achieve certain democratic prerequisites for eventual unification, such as access to the Internet or free elections as in Taiwan, Yen said.

  Unification could be used as a strategy to maintain the cross-strait “status quo,” he said.

  There is also room for other strategies, such as forming ties with self-declared states that are not internationally recognized, such as Somaliland and Western Sahara, he said.

  Former American Institute in Taiwan director William Stanton has voiced support for Tsai’s current foreign and cross-strait policy, and said that economic opportunities promised by Beijing remain the primary factor in Pacific nations’ diplomatic changes.

  While China reportedly offered US$500 million — if not more under the table — to lure the Solomon Islands government into making the switch, Taiwanese might not agree with spending that amount of money for the same purpose, said Stanton, who became vice president of National Yang-Ming University in Taipei in August.

  If Chinese could vote, it is curious whether they would agree to such spending on another country, when many of them live in extreme poverty, he said.

  Asked what to do if Taiwan lost more allies, Stanton said Taipei’s relations with major nations and partners, such as Japan, the US, Australia, New Zealand, European countries and those targeted by its New Southbound Policy, matter more than the number of formal allies.

  That does not mean Taiwan should disregard current allies, but it can do its best to keep them as diplomatic partners, while spending limited resources on programs at home and in key nations, he said.

  Many efforts by Beijing to obstruct Taiwan on global occasions have proven to be counterproductive, and it is not necessarily true that China is making more friends when getting more allies, he said, citing the pro-Taiwan demonstrations by Solomon Islanders as an example of “blowback.”

  The US might have paid insufficient attention to some Pacific island nations, and it can certainly do more to address climate change, although the issue is not directly related to the change in ties to Beijing, he said.

  Despite progress in US-Taiwan relations, the US is in a morally weak position when it asks other nations not to break ties with Taipei, he said.

  Stanton said he hopes to see stronger US-Taiwan relations, including the signing of bilateral trade agreements, but added that political considerations are essential in such agreements.

  Whether the US should establish formal ties with Taiwan is a radical, but arguable question, and it is not unlikely that the US government might promote dual recognition of the ROC and the PRC if it wants, another academic said on condition of anonymity.

  However, when Taiwan asks for recognition by other nations, it is embarrassing to see that it is still striving for the right to interpret “one China,” as suggested by the Constitution, they said, believing that a constitutional overhaul is necessary for the nation to make diplomatic breakthroughs.
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