Fri, Aug 23, 2019 page3

• F-16Vs fit Taiwan’s defense needs, ex-US official says

  • Staff writer with CNA
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  US-made F-16V jets would allow Taiwan to engage in networked defense and initiate asymmetric warfare against possible invasions, a former US defense official said in Taipei on Wednesday, a day after the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced that it has notified the US Congress of the possible sale of 66 F-16Vs to Taiwan.

  The F-16V is an aircraft that has all the capabilities that Taiwan needs, former US assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs Wallace Gregson told the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, where he delivered a lecture entitled “Taiwan, INDOPACOM [US Indo-Pacific Command] and the Future of the Global Order.”

  The F-16V can be a powerful node that enables a networked defense for Taiwan, in which efforts and firing on air, land and sea are all operating on the same picture, said Gregson, who served as commander of US Marine Forces Pacific before his retirement from the military.

  “So that we’re always engaging the enemy from an asymmetric angle where they cannot defend themselves,” he added. “That way, we achieve the capability for numerically inferior forces to defeat superior numbers.”

  A single aircraft fleet would also mean that logistics can be simplified, thus saving money and maintenance hours, he said.

  The fundamental security threat to Taiwan is political and coercive, with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) showing menace and intimidation, he said.

  However, asked if China has the ability now to take over Taiwan militarily, Gregson said: “How I see it? Very, very difficult.”

  Taiwan has several advantages, including favorable terrain, mountains that dominate the urbanized lowlands, a limited number of beaches that are assailable by amphibious invasion forces, and it is developing counterstrike capabilities and electronic warfare capabilities, he said.

  Unless tempted by a lack of will and capability in Taiwan, China is not likely to initiate an actual conflict, but instead wage a war of nerves, political warfare or hybrid warfare to subdue Taiwan, Gregson said.

  Strong conventional military deterrence would give Taiwan the confidence to counter these gray zone efforts, he said.

  Turning to Hong Kong, Gregson said the ongoing protests have put Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) prestige at stake, as well as his continued rule.

  “Even autocratic leaders must worry about their core supporters, but one who has purged so many, and did away with succession, has likely made many enemies. They are quiet for now, but for how long? The pressure is on Xi to act,” he said.

  China needs Hong Kong commercially now more than ever, but Beijing remembers how civil unrest and resistance can spread, so “it’s hard to see how this ends well,” he said.

  There is a possibility of a second Tiananmen Square Massacre, a repeat of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution, the 1968 Prague Spring or even the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, he said.

  “However this ends, there will be no return to the status quo,” he added.

  In related news, PLA Colonel Chen Rongdi (陳榮弟), chief of the Institute of War Studies at the Academy of Military Sciences, yesterday warned that China would “not sit idly by” if the US proceeds with the F-16V sale to Taiwan.

  Beijing considered the sale a violation of US commitments to it regarding Taiwan, and it would not rule out measures in addition to punishing foreign firms involved in the deal, Chen told a forum in Beijing organized by the All-China Journalists Association.

  Colonel Cao Yanzong (曹延中), a research fellow at the institute, told the forum that the F-16Vs would ultimately be ineffective, given the PLA Air Force’s overwhelming air superiority and arsenal of short to medium-range missiles.

  The sale would be of little use “beyond making profits for American arms makers, while further undermining relations between China and the US and China and Taiwan,” Cao said.

  Additional reporting by AP
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