China’s plan to exert more control in Hong Kong and cultivate pro-Beijing factions in Taiwan has taken a blow, but the regime is likely to renew its efforts when conditions are seen to be favorable, so Taiwan must be cautious, security expert Lee Che-chuan (李哲全) said.
Lee wrote the comments in an article in the latest issue of the Institute of National Defense and Security Research’s journal, the National Defense and Security Weekly (國防安全週報). The institute is a think tank affiliated with the Ministry of National Defense.
Hong Kong protests over a proposed extradition law offer Taiwan insight into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) decisionmaking process, as Xi is known to direct Beijing’s policies regarding the territory and Taiwan, Lee wrote.
As the New York Times noted, the shelving of the extradition bill was the biggest concession to public pressure that Xi has made, he wrote.
China fully supported the proposed bill, which emboldened Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam (林鄭月娥) before demonstrations and international pressure forced Beijing to retreat, Lee said.
Following the events in Hong Kong, Taiwanese have largely rebuffed Beijing’s “one country, two systems” framework, he wrote.
Unification under Beijing’s terms was explicitly rejected by people who took part in the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential primary, such as Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kou-yu (韓國瑜) and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘), while former KMT chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu’s (洪秀柱) endorsement of peaceful reunification was branded “a personal act” by the KMT, Lee wrote.
Taiwanese support for unification under the “one country, two systems” framework is also declining in polls, he added.
In the past seven years, Xi has made enemies with his hardline policies and anti-corruption campaign, even while the US-China trade and technology dispute has been escalating, Lee wrote.
Although Xi has been compelled by these forces to yield ground, tactical adjustments should not be mistaken for an abandonment of fundamental and strategic objectives, he said, adding that Beijing is expected to tighten its grip again, until the “two systems” perish in its “one country” framework.
Beijing has not backtracked from any of the Taiwan policy goals Xi made in the past five years and China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman An Fengshan (安峰山) last month said: “‘One country, two systems’ is the best solution for Taiwan,” Lee wrote.
Meanwhile, China’s campaign to influence Taiwanese has continued unabated and its methods are becoming more adaptive and pragmatic, he wrote.
“While temporarily quiet, the risk Taiwan faces from Beijing’s unification plan ... cannot be ignored,” Lee wrote.
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