Former premier William Lai (賴清德) would beat Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) by 2.1 percentage points if he represented the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in next year’s presidential election, but President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would not, a poll released yesterday by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found.
The poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday last week, asked respondents who they would vote for if Lai, Han and Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), an independent, were to contest the presidency.
Hon Hai Group chairman Terry Gou (郭台銘) was not included in the poll, because he did not announce his participation in the KMT primary until Wednesday, foundation chairman Michael You (游盈隆) said.
Photo: Peter Lo, Taipei Times
The survey showed that with Tsai excluded, 33.2 percent of respondents would vote for Lai, compared with 31.1 percent for Han and 27.8 percent for Ko.
“It would be a very close match with margins expected at less than 3 percentage points” if the three ran against each other, You said.
Tsai and Lai are seeking the DPP nomination for next year’s election.
If Tsai wins the DPP primary, she would lose to Han by 8.3 percentage points, the survey showed.
When asked to choose between Tsai, Han and Ko, 35.8 percent of respondents said Han, 27.9 percent said Ko and 27.5 percent said Tsai.
Asked to choose between Tsai and Lai, 49.9 percent chose Lai, compared with 27.7 percent for Tsai, it showed.
The margin between the two has decreased by 7 percentage points from polls last month, although the gap is still wide, You said.
Over the past month, Tsai’s approval rate has increased by 2.2 percentage points to 34.6 percent, he added.
The poll also asks respondents to compare Tsai and Lai in seven areas: ability to boost the nation’s economy, bring positive change, tackle cross-strait relations, improve the nation’s standing, care for people’s needs, leadership skills, and integrity and trustworthiness.
Lai garnered the most support in all areas by at least 9.4 percent, it showed.
Even among respondents who back the DPP, Lai received more support in most areas, with the only exceptions being cross-strait relations and improving Taiwan’s standing, You said.
The nationwide survey, which interviewed 1,072 respondents by telephone, was weighted to fit the population profile. It has a margin of error of 2.99 percentage points.
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