A crisis in the Taiwan Strait could be imminent, a US academic said, adding that he believes Chinese pressure on Taiwan could intensify in the lead-up to and immediately following next year’s presidential election.
Michael Chase, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, made the comment in an article titled “Averting a Cross-Strait Crisis” published on Tuesday last week on the Web site of the Council on Foreign Relations, a US think tank.
China responded to President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) refusal to endorse its approach to the so-called “1992 consensus” by implementing a multifaceted pressure campaign to punish and coerce Taiwan into being more compliant, Chase said.
The “1992 consensus” — a term former Mainland Affairs Council chairman Su Chi (蘇起) admitted making up in 2000 — refers to a tacit understanding between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Beijing that both sides acknowledge there is “one China,” with each side having its own interpretation of what “China” means.
This pressure could intensify in the next 12 to 18 months to the extent that it triggers a new cross-strait crisis, he said, adding that a crisis would bear on US national security interests.
Possible warning signs include statements by Tsai, the approval rating of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), changing public opinion or the emergence of a more pro-independence DPP candidate, Chase said, adding: “The possibility of a DPP candidate Beijing distrusts even more than Tsai, or of a three-way race for the presidency in 2020, could create unpredictable dynamics.”
If a cross-strait crisis were to occur, it could exacerbate US-China tensions in areas where there was already considerable friction, for example maritime disputes in the South China Sea, or imperil cooperation such as over North Korean denuclearization, Chase said.
If the US fails to help Taiwan to respond to escalating Chinese pressure or if Washington responds, but is unable to help, other US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific — in particular Japan and South Korea — might believe Washington lacks resolve or capability, he said.
“Rather than waiting for the situation to deteriorate before taking action, US policymakers should consider and prepare to implement options to avert a cross-strait crisis,” he said, adding that they should “be better positioned to deal with one effectively if it cannot be avoided.”
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) today issued a sea warning for Typhoon Fung-wong effective from 5:30pm, while local governments canceled school and work for tomorrow. A land warning is expected to be issued tomorrow morning before it is expected to make landfall on Wednesday, the agency said. Taoyuan, and well as Yilan, Hualien and Penghu counties canceled work and school for tomorrow, as well as mountainous district of Taipei and New Taipei City. For updated information on closures, please visit the Directorate-General of Personnel Administration Web site. As of 5pm today, Fung-wong was about 490km south-southwest of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan's southernmost point.
Almost a quarter of volunteer soldiers who signed up from 2021 to last year have sought early discharge, the Legislative Yuan’s Budget Center said in a report. The report said that 12,884 of 52,674 people who volunteered in the period had sought an early exit from the military, returning NT$895.96 million (US$28.86 million) to the government. In 2021, there was a 105.34 percent rise in the volunteer recruitment rate, but the number has steadily declined since then, missing recruitment targets, the Chinese-language United Daily News said, citing the report. In 2021, only 521 volunteers dropped out of the military, the report said, citing
A magnitude 5.3 earthquake struck Kaohsiung at 1pm today, the Central Weather Administration said. The epicenter was in Jiasian District (甲仙), 72.1km north-northeast of Kaohsiung City Hall, at a depth of 7.8km, agency data showed. There were no immediate reports of damage. The earthquake's intensity, which gauges the actual effects of a temblor, was highest in Kaohsiung and Tainan, where it measured a 4 on Taiwan's seven-tier intensity scale. It also measured a 3 in parts of Chiayi City, as well as Pingtung, Yunlin and Hualien counties, data showed.
Nearly 5 million people have signed up to receive the government’s NT$10,000 (US$322) universal cash handout since registration opened on Wednesday last week, with deposits expected to begin tomorrow, the Ministry of Finance said yesterday. After a staggered sign-up last week — based on the final digit of the applicant’s national ID or Alien Resident Certificate number — online registration is open to all eligible Taiwanese nationals, foreign permanent residents and spouses of Taiwanese nationals. Banks are expected to start issuing deposits from 6pm today, the ministry said. Those who completed registration by yesterday are expected to receive their NT$10,000 tomorrow, National Treasury
RSS