A US expert on Taiwan said that China’s “Gambia gambit” might be the beginning of a campaign to undermine Taiwan’s international position.
“Although the Gambia is small gruel for China, the restoration of China-Gambia ties is a big deal psychologically for Taiwan — and China knows it,” said Richard Bush, director of East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution.
Writing on the Brookings’ Web site, Bush said that China’s restoration of diplomatic relations with the Gambia on Thursday last week demonstrated Beijing’s displeasure at president-elect Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) refusal to explicitly support China’s formula for conducting cross-strait relations.
Because Gambia terminated relations with Taipei in 2013, China was not technically “stealing” one of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, said Bush, who once served as chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT).
“But it could still signal that it would accommodate to a Tsai presidency only on its own terms,” he added.
The Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) victory in the Jan. 16 elections posed a dilemma for Beijing, Bush said.
Beijing had the option of seeking mutual accommodation with Tsai to maintain the stability and cooperation that had emerged under the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), he said.
However, given China’s belief that Tsai and her party intends to pursue independence, Beijing saw a risk that Tsai might take advantage of its goodwill and not reciprocate, Bush said.
“Beijing remained suspicious and declined to give Tsai the benefit of the doubt,” he said.
Bush said that China has instead pursued the “harder option” of insisting Tsai accept its fundamental principles as the price of maintaining the “status quo,” even though many of her supporters oppose such commitments.
“In effect, Tsai would have to choose between her political base and China,” Bush said. “If she stuck with her supporters, Beijing would trigger a deterioration in cross-strait relations — economically, politically and diplomatically.”
“Restoring relations with the Gambia was one way for China to demonstrate that its hardball threats were not a bluff,” Bush said.
He said that the Gambia maneuver has a fundamental implication: that China’s deliberate goal in imposing various sanctions was to increase the likelihood that Tsai’s presidency would fail.
Bush said this created the Hobson’s Choice between a deterioration in cross-strait relations and preserving domestic political support, and went beyond limited and symbolic punishment.
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