The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairmanship by-election on March 26 might spell the return of Deputy Legislative Speaker Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) to the party’s decisionmaking circle following her ouster as the party’s presidential candidate.
According to KMT Organizational Development Committee estimates, 330,000 members are eligible to vote for the chairperson, but the party — along with commentators and pundits — estimates that there will be a low turnout, with less than 50 percent expected to cast ballots.
Sources said the landslide losses in the Jan. 16 presidential and legislative elections have dealt a great blow to party unity and the morale of its supporters, which could lead to a low turnout for the by-election.
Turnout rates for the past three chairperson elections have been around the 50 percent mark, sources said, adding that this election could have a turnout as low as 30 or 40 percent.
Commentators say that with such a low turnout, the Huang Fu-hsing military veterans’ branch, with its 90,000 votes, and Hung supporters might prove pivotal to her winning the by-election.
Some KMT members who are wary of Hung are worried, because it is rumored that as many as 6,000 new members registered due to Hung and might vote for her, pundits said.
New Taipei City Mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫) resigned as KMT chairman following his loss in the presidential race. However, the decision to postpone the by-election by one month has been seen by some pundits as a move to block Hung.
The closer the by-election is held after the presidential election, the greater Hung’s chances of becoming the new leader of the “deep blue” bloc, pundits said.
However, some KMT members said that according to party regulations, new members or returning members only receive the right to vote in party affairs after four months.
Delaying the vote by one month would allow Hung supporters who registered after November last year to vote, the member said.
Pundits have said that Hung might contest the chairperson post after her core group in October and November last year began sending messages via Line and Facebook asking supporters to register as KMT members or renew their membership.
While most pundits and some party members agreed that Hung has a good chance of becoming chairperson, others said that former Taipei mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) also has a good chance.
The Hau family has great influence in the Huang Fu-hsing branch compared with Hung, who has a history of badmouthing the party, sources said.
Hung has criticized both the KMT and Chu, sources said, adding that people in the party worry Hung might lead it to advocate extreme policies.
The party has not denied rumors that as many as 5,000 to 6,000 new members would be able to vote.
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