Thu, Jan 14, 2016 page3

• ELECTIONS: US pundits warn of PRC’s bullying tactics after polls

  HEADACHES: Analysts said that Beijing is worried about Saturday’s elections as well as the US presidential poll, and much depends on how it reacts to Tsai Ing-wen

  • By William Lowther / Staff reporter in WASHINGTON
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  Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) might use pressure and coercion to influence Taiwan’s next president, a Washington conference was told on Tuesday.

  If Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is elected, there could be a “strong reaction” from Beijing, said Bonnie Glaxer, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) senior adviser and director of its China Power Project.

  She was speaking after the audience at the Washington-based think tank’s annual Asia Forecast conference voted electronically in favor of the proposition that Taiwan would not be a factor in the US election campaign.

  Glaser said she hoped the audience was correct, adding that it would be a “very good outcome” if China decided it wanted to preserve stability across the Taiwan Strait.

  If Tsai was elected it would be a positive development for Beijing to open the channels of communication and to continue a “problem-solving approach” with Taiwan, she said.

  However, Glaser said that Xi had clearly demonstrated he was willing to tolerate a high level of friction with a large number of neighbors and that he had a potential appetite for risk.

  As a result, she said, Beijing might pressure Tsai to accept some definition of the “one China” principle.

  “That can’t be ruled out,” Glaser said.

  There could be economic pressure or military action or intimidation, she said.

  “My own view is that the mainland has a pretty robust toolkit these days of things it could use and it is not likely to use military pressure right out of the box,” Glaser said.

  She said that Chinese were “confused and worried” by the US election campaign and feared the next US president would take a tougher stance on Beijing.

  Glaser said that US President Barack Obama had been seen by some as “a little soft” and willing to put certain issues on the back burner in order to promote cooperation.

  “I think Chinese are particularly worried about what will come next,” she said.

  Glaser said there was confidence in Taiwan that the next US president — no matter their party affiliation — would support the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA).

  “They probably think that a Republican would be better for Taiwan with a willingness to sell more advanced weapons,” she said.

  Glaser said that Obama sold a lot of arms in terms of volume, but there had not been a willingness to sell items “the Chinese have signaled that they would see as more provocative.”

  Glaser said that even before former US secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton announced her intention to run for US president, Clinton said in an interview that Taiwan was too dependent on China and needed to diversify its exports.

  Clinton compared Taiwan to Ukraine, where, she said, Russian separatists were then trying to undo the nation’s democracy and return it to Moscow’s orbit, Glaser said.

  “These are some of the issues that could come back if Taiwan is on people’s radar screen later in the year,” she said.

  CSIS senior vice president and Japan chair Michael Green said it suggested that Taiwan “could be a big headache” for the next US president.

  “You could imagine a scenario where Xi, who likes to play hardball, starts taking away Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, not as a strategy to punish Taiwan to seek independence, but rather to punish Taiwan for not unifying,” he said.

  Asked about the difference between Tsai and previous DPP leaders, Glaser said that Tsai served in the administrations of former presidents Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).

  “She has enormous experience and I believe has drawn a lot of lessons from these administrations in Taiwan and their policies, both domestically and toward the mainland and toward the United States,” Glaser said.

  She said Tsai was very much her own person and had her own ideas about what she wanted to accomplish.

  “I think she understands that her domestic agenda, which begins with reinvigorating the economy, narrowing the gap between the rich and poor and delivering better governance to Taiwanese, is deeply connected with having a stable relationship across the strait, as well as having a good relationship with the United States,” Glaser said.

  The “big question” was not if Tsai was going to be provocative and push a pro-independence policy, but rather how China would respond to her, Glaser said.

  “If the mainland steals some diplomatic allies or does not resume the flow of tourists to Taiwan, which we have already seen cut by 50 percent, this would be damaging to Taiwan’s economy,” Glaser said.

  She said this kind of coercion could force Tsai — if elected — to become tougher and to respond because domestic pressure could create a “negative action-reaction spiral” in the cross-strait relationship.

  “It would be very, very worrysome, that is what my concern is,” Glaser said.

  CSIS senior adviser and Freeman chair in China studies Christopher Johnson said that Tsai would not do “anything stupid” with regard to independence.

  “She is too smart and experienced to do that, but implicit or explicit in many of her policy positions is this notion that Taiwan has become too economically dependent on the mainland,” he said.

  Johnson said Tsai could see that Taiwanese industry operating in China would eventually be replaced by Chinese industry.

  However, there was a constituency in China that would argue Taiwan had been given a lot and on the core issue of sovereignty, China had received nothing back, he said.

  The economic relationship provided stability and that if Tsai removed it the voices questioning Taiwan’s sovereignty would grow louder, Johnson said.
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