Beijing is certain to seek secret communication channels with Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) if she wins the Jan. 16 election, former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) director Douglas Paal said.
No such secret channels have been opened thus far, he said.
“Some of these Chinese efforts may evoke responses from the US, especially if they suggest coercion or the use of force, which seems unlikely as of now,” he said.
In an essay posted on the Web site of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he is vice president for studies, Paal said that if Tsai is not responsive to Beijing’s needs, China would signal the costs.
“This could include ending the diplomatic truce under which Beijing has rejected efforts by Taiwan’s diplomatic partners to break with Taiwan and recognize Beijing,” he said. “Four or five small states could switch recognition quickly.”
The essay, first published by The Diplomat online magazine, says there is enough “suspicion and mistrust” across the Taiwan Strait that a vicious cycle of action and reaction cannot be ruled out and probably should be subject to active policy prevention.
Paal said that calls for the maintenance of peace and stability should form the core of Washington’s private and public messaging as events unfold.
“Steadiness will be required as both Beijing and Taipei will seek to manipulate Washington into helping each to restrain, cajole or mollify the other,” he said.
If the US does not grasp and establish its own principled position from the outset, it risks entrapment by events, Paal said.
He said that if Tsai wins the presidency, Beijing will look for public indications that she has taken seriously China’s repeated warnings that the basis for continued cross-strait cooperation lies in an acknowledgement of the “one China” concept “however formulated.”
However, Washington seems persuaded that Tsai has developed “safe hands” to manage cross-strait policy, he said.
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