A warmer and wetter winter is expected this year due to a strong El Nino effect, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said yesterday.
The effect refers to atmospheric changes caused by periodic increases in sea temperature in the equatorial region between the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
CWB Weather Forecast Center director Cheng Ming-dean (鄭明典) said the El Nino effect that has started developing since the beginning of this year would peak in winter, with the intensity resembling or even surpassing the strong El Nino effect that occurred from 1997 to 1998.
Cheng said the evolution of El Nino would affect the intensity of the northeast monsoon, which normally affects the nation’s weather in autumn and winter.
He said bureau statistics showed that the average temperature measured at 13 observation centers in the plains between Sept. 1 and Wednesday was 26.02oC. Should the trend continue until the end of this month, the average fall temperature this year could become the highest recorded since 1947, he said.
Higher temperatures this fall were mainly due to some unusually hot days this month caused by strong subtropical high-pressure systems, Cheng said.
The daytime temperature in New Taipei City’s Banciao District (板橋) reached 33.1oC on Nov. 6, while the temperature in Chiayi on Nov. 18 reached 33oC.
Cheng said this fall’s northeast monsoon did not arrive until Wednesday because El Nino has also reduced the strength of cold air from the north.
Various studies have shown the winter in Taiwan has a tendency to be warmer and wetter if it is under the influence of El Nino, with the bureau’s analyses supporting the results of previous studies, Cheng said.
While the nation is expected to continue to see warmer temperatures next month, Cheng said winter rain would be more obvious in February.
Even though the nation is expected to experience a warmer winter, Cheng said the nation would still occasionally be hit by cold fronts, which can cause temperatures to drop to less than 10oC.
While the bureau forecast a wetter winter, Cheng said the amount of the rainfall would not match summertime levels.
Sunny skies are forecast for today and tomorrow, which are expected to cause a rise in daytime temperatures over the weekend. However, the northeast monsoon is forecast to increase in strength on Monday, which could lower northern area highs to 20oC.
Apart from cold fronts, the bureau categorizes cold weather systems from the north as a “cold air mass” if temperatures drop to less than 14oC, while systems that cause temperatures to drop to less than 12oC are categorized as a “strong cold air mass.”
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