Fri, Sep 11, 2015 page3

• Assumption in US, China of Tsai victory, Glaser says

  ELECTION CONCERNS: Bonnie Glaser told an Atlantic Council conference on the January elections that Taiwan would face many future challenges no matter who wins

  • By William Lowther / Staff reporter in WASHINGTON
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  The US and China are now “almost” operating under the assumption that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is going to be the next president of Taiwan, a Washington conference was told on Wednesday.

  Bonnie Glaser, a senior advisor for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that if Tsai won January’s presidential election it was unlikely that she would pursue provocative policies toward China.

  “Whether cross-strait relations remain stable depends on the interaction between Tsai’s policies and the Mainland’s reaction,” she said.

  Chinese officials have said privately that if Tsai fails to accept the “1992 consensus” they will “close the door,” she said.

  The so-called 1992 consensus is a term that former Mainland Affairs Council chairman Su Chi (蘇起) said he made up in 2000 and refers to a supposed understanding between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Chinese government that both sides of the Taiwan Strait acknowledge there is “one China,” with each side having its own interpretation.

  “I don’t think we have heard the bottom line yet from the Mainland, and there is a lot of time for this to evolve,” Glaser said.

  She told the Atlantic Council’s “The Upcoming Taiwanese Elections” conference that Taiwan’s low rate of defense spending was often perceived in the US as a reflection of “the lack of determination of Taiwan to defend itself.”

  The perception could be wrong, and “I am not agreeing with it,” but nevertheless the low spending sent a political message, she said.

  “It would similarly send a more positive message if Taiwan would increase its defense spending,” she said.

  “I think Tsai is committed to preserve good ties with the US and to try to strengthen Taiwan and maintain stable relations with the Mainland,” she said, adding that this was going to be a very difficult task.

  “I think Taiwan’s future is going to face many challenges and difficulties going forward regardless of who is elected,” she said.

  Asked about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) state visit to the US later this month, Glaser said that every Chinese leader raises Taiwan when he meets with his US counterpart.

  “In recent years it has been relatively perfunctory, mostly because China has felt it has been able to handle the relationship with Taiwan by itself,” she said.

  There were an enormous number of pressing issues to be discussed and limited time at the US-China summit, she said.

  “I would guess that Xi’s message will be that the US should play a more proactive role to ensure that cross-strait stability exists, and that in order to have cross-strait stability there must be an acceptance by Taiwan’s next president of the ‘92 consensus and ‘one China,’ and that the US should play a role in ensuring that happens,” she said.

  The Chinese were worried that Tsai might win by a large margin, and want to see the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) remain an effective counterbalance and a party that can restrain the DPP, she said.

  At the same time, the US was encouraging Beijing “to be more creative and flexible,” she said.

  China was “deeply suspicious” about Tsai and was “very worried” about her history and past political positions, Glaser said.

  “Tsai Ing-wen needs to do more to reassure the Mainland,” she said.

  Even if Chinese concerns were not valid there was a responsibility to provide some reassurances, she said.
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