Less than two decades after China fired missiles into the sea off Taiwan, the first formal meeting between the two sides’ governments may pave the way for discussions of political ties.
Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Minister Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) is to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) Director Zhang Zhijun (張志軍), in Nanjing, China, on Feb. 11.
The talks follow public recognition by Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) that closer economic links must be backed by moves to resolve a standoff over deeper differences that once threatened to spark war in East Asia.
The meetings reflect a changed atmosphere in the years since Ma’s election in 2008 and paved the way for more tourism and trade with China. All the while, the Chinese military has kept more than 1,000 missiles pointed at Taiwan, demonstrating its determination to thwart moves toward nationhood for an island it regards as part of its territory.
“I’d call it creeping normalization,” Hong Kong Baptist University political science professor Jean-Pierre Cabestan said in a telephone interview.
“China doesn’t want to recognize the Republic of China, but they are more and more ready to have contact with the Taipei government,” Cabestan said.
In 1996, China fired missiles into the stretch of water between them before Taiwan’s first direct presidential election. Two-way trade reached US$197.2 billion last year, almost double from five years earlier.
Speaking at the APEC summit in October last year, Xi said China is willing to hold talks with Taiwan on an equal basis under the “one China” principle and problems caused by the impasse should not be handed down to future generations.
Holding the meeting in Nanjing is poignant because the city was China’s capital before 1949, the year Chiang Kai-shek’s (蔣介石) Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) fled to Taiwan and ceded power to former Chinese leader Mao Zedong’s (毛澤東) Communists after years of civil war.
Expectations for moves toward a political resolution should be limited, though “there is a lot of symbolism” to the talks, according to Wang Dong (王棟), director of the Center for Northeast Asian Strategic Studies at Peking University in Beijing.
“As we move from the economic realm to the political realm, it becomes increasingly more sensitive as there is a larger gap in terms of positions on both sides,” he said. “I see the mainland side agreeing to those meetings to test the waters to see how they can proceed.”
The meeting is an “important move” to promote relations and deepen trust, Xinhua news agency reported, citing Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Ma Xiaoguang (馬曉光).
One important part of the meeting will be the way Zhang addresses Wang Yu-chi. If Zhang calls him minister, as Wang Yu-chi on Tuesday said he expected, it could frame future talks as discussions between governments of equal standing. That is likely to overshadow any agreements they reach.
Ma Ying-jeou, speaking on an official visit to Honduras earlier this week, said the meeting was an “inevitable” step in cross-strait relations.
About 40 percent of Taiwan’s exports are bound for China, according to government statistics. Taiwan’s economy grew 2.92 percent, more than estimated, in the fourth quarter of last year, the government said, after a recovery in the US and Europe boosted demand for its exports.
Since taking office, Ma Ying-jeou has opened up direct flights with China and overseen the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, with a service trade agreement to be debated by the legislature as early as March.
“It’s going to be too early to gauge whether the meeting will contribute to better cross-straight relations,” said Alexander Huang (黃介正), a professor of strategy and war-gaming at Tamkang University in Taipei. “Both sides will be very cautious.”
Ma Ying-jeou, who has battled approval ratings of less than 15 percent, must also take into account the views of the Taiwanese public. An opinion poll released on Jan. 14 found that 54.8 percent of Taiwanese felt China has benefited more than Taiwan from cross-strait engagement and Taiwanese investment.
Should next month’s talks prove successful, they may create momentum that would enable Ma Ying-jeou and Xi to meet, the first such presidential-level interaction, according to Wang Dong.
“If it happens it will be of historic significance,” Wang Dong said in a telephone interview. “You could even argue the two of them should be awarded the Nobel peace prize. They need to sign a peace treaty or a peace agreement or declaration.”
Additional reporting by staff writer
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