The Greater Kaohsiung election is perhaps the most complex of all the mayoral races tomorrow because of a split in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) of the DPP is the clear frontrunner, but talk of “strategic voting” has added some intrigue.
Ever since Kaohsiung County Commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興) threw his hat in the ring in August, he has called on voters to support him instead of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順).
For Yang, who withdrew from the DPP to run as an independent, the key is to win as many votes as possible from swing voters and pan-blue supporters. This is why he has been visiting pan-blue heavyweights in Kaohsiung City and County over the past few months.
In terms of local factions, Yang’s campaign seems to have achieved a certain effect, political commentators said.
“Since Yang Chiu-hsing entered the race, some local [pan-blue] politicians have obviously leaned toward him,” said Yang Chun-chih (楊鈞池), chairman of National University of Kaohsiung’s Department of Government and Law. “First we had [People First Party Chairman] James Soong (宋楚瑜) publicly endorse him, followed by [Kaohsiung County pan-blue faction leader] Lin Yuan-yuan (林淵源) and then some friends of [former KMT Kaohsiung mayoral candidate] Huang Chun-ying (黃俊英) also voiced support for him.”
Political analyst Shih Cheng-feng (施正鋒) said traditional pan-blue supporters in the business, religious and factional circles in Kaohsiung have basically voiced support for Yang Chiu-hsing, no matter how subtle that support may appear. Shih was referring to a remark by Fo Kuang Shan Monastery founder Master Hsing Yun (星雲法師) when the independent candidate visited him last Thursday.
Hsing Yun did not specifically say whom to support or drop, but he did say that Yang Chiu-hsing’s decision to enter the race was good for the election.
Yang Chun-chih said political forces in the county are worried about being marginalized after the city and the county are merged next month into a special municipality.
“Their support for the commissioner shows their fears about their own survival,” he said.
Even the KMT might be hoping that Yang Chiu-hsing wins, although senior KMT politicians have dismissed speculation that the party supports him instead of Huang, Shih said.
“The KMT knows perfectly well that it will not win the Kaohsiung election. It hopes Yang Chiu-hsing could replace Chen because this would benefit the party in the 2012 presidential election. At least Yang Chiu-hsing is more neutral. He’s neither blue nor green [since quitting the DPP],” Shih said.
However, the impact of Yang Chiu-hsing for ordinary voters appears limited. Kaohsiung resident Chang Chia-ling (張嘉玲) said his call to abandon Huang and support him left her completely unaffected.
Yang Chun-chih said Chen’s chances of winning the election have always been high.
“This is why she hasn’t put as much effort into large-scale rallies as she did in the past to boost voters’ support for her,” he said.
Shih questioned whether Chen could really sit back and relax, since about one-third of Kaohsiung residents have not expressed a preference for one of the three.
The DPP has held Kaohsiung City for the past 12 years, but its wins in 1998, 2002 and 2006 were by relatively narrow margins.
With so much attention focused on Chen and Yang Chiu-hsing, Huang does seem to have been marginalized, even though she has represented the city in the legislature for 17 years.
The KMT has been working hard to avoid having Huang end up last, which could push its percentage of the total vote in the five mayoral races below that of the DPP.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY CNA
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