The mayoral election in the Greater Kaohsiung special municipality may have a clear favorite, but a split in the stronger political party in the region could still have unpredictable consequences come election day on Saturday, analysts say.
Kaohsiung City and neighboring Kaohsiung County will be merged into a greater Kaohsiung municipality after the election, making it the second-largest administrative district in Taiwan, with a population of 2.77 million.
Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is the clear frontrunner in the race, maintaining leads by substantial margins over her two main rivals, but recent talk of “strategic voting” has added intrigue to the race.
Chen’s main threat appears to be Kaohsiung County Councilor Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興), who announced on Aug. 9 he was withdrawing from the DPP to enter the race as an independent after losing the DPP primary to Chen.
Yang, who has served two terms as county commissioner from 2001 to present, and Chen, who assumed office in 2006, both believe they have solid chances of winning for two reasons: tradition and performance.
The greater Kaohsiung area is considered a DPP stronghold. Kaohsiung City has been held by the party since 1998, while Kaohsiung County has not seen a Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) commissioner in the last quarter century.
In past elections, the KMT and the DPP have had roughly the same support rates in Kaohsiung City, while the DPP has fared much better in Kaohsiung County.
Both candidates have also been popular and enjoyed considerable support during their terms. Yang had the highest approval rating from his constituents and Chen the third highest in a survey conducted this year by CommonWealth Magazine on how residents of 21 administrative districts saw their leaders.
A former civil engineer and legislator, the 54-year-old Yang earned the nickname “The Southern Little Giant” for his hard work in strengthening the local economy and improving the mountainous county’s infrastructure.
He also had to shoulder some of the massive responsibility for reconstruction and recovery after Typhoon Morakot killed hundreds and wiped out several mountain villages in the region in August last year.
Chen, 60, is known for her dedication to human rights during Taiwan’s struggle for democracy in the 1970s and 1980s and her status as one of the founding members of the DPP. She also served as chairperson of the Council of Labor Affairs under the previous DPP administration.
Chen reached the peak of her career after the city’s organization of the World Games last year was widely considered a success.
She ran into trouble later, however, for inviting the Dalai Lama and Uighur political activist Rebiya Kadeer for visits, a move that infuriated China and led it to block Chinese tourists from visiting Kaohsiung.
With most attention focused on the battle between Chen and Yang, KMT candidate Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順) has seemed to be marginalized, despite having served as a legislator representing Kaohsiung City for the past 17 years.
When Yang split from the DPP, the conventional wisdom was that the internal strife would help Huang because it would divide DPP voters.
However, Yang’s candidacy has drawn at least as much support from the KMT base as the DPP’s, leading to concerns in both the Huang and Yang camps that their supporters will engage in “strategic voting” to mount a challenge against Chen.
The campaign has also seen Huang file legal complaints against both of her rivals. She accused Chen of malfeasance that left part of the city flooded by heavy rains brought by Typhoon Megi in September, and she took Yang to court for allegedly using public resources in his campaign. The Kaohsiung District Prosecutors Office decided, however, not to press charges against Yang or Chen.
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