China’s growing military, economic and political capabilities make it ever more important for Taiwan to strengthen its relations with the US, a new study published by the Washington-based Brookings Institution said.
“As the weaker power in cross-strait relations, it makes good strategic sense for Taiwan to have the support of Washington in case Beijing changes its intentions,” Wang Yuan-kang (王元綱) said.
Wang, a Taiwanese academic now at Western Michigan University, said Taiwan cannot base its security “on the goodwill of China.”
“Taiwan needs allies. To deter China and to preserve Taiwan’s political autonomy and survival, Taiwan must strengthen its self-defense capabilities,” he said.
“In the midst of cross-strait dialogues, Taiwan should negotiate from a position of strength rather than from a position of weakness. With strengthened defense capabilities, Taiwan would more likely get favorable terms in cross-strait negotiations and not be forced to accommodate Beijing’s demands,” Wang said.
There is still room for growth in Taiwan-US military exchanges and defense cooperation, Wang said, adding that building strong military ties with the US was the “best hedge against a change in Chinese intentions in the future.”
The study, titled China’s Growing Strength, Taiwan’s Diminishing Options, is part of Brookings’ Taiwan-US Quarterly Analysis.
Wang said China’s growing power is limiting strategic options for Taiwan, “whose main security threat comes from the mainland.”
He said China believes that fear of war is the best deterrent against Taiwan independence.
“China’s military buildup opposite Taiwan strikes an inharmonious chord in the ongoing cross-strait rapprochement. Contrary to China’s overarching strategy, the buildup is not winning the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese people,” he said. “It also makes military confidence-building measures, which would be a major accomplishment in further stabilizing the situation, even more difficult, given the lack of trust between the two militaries.”
Taiwan’s heightened sense of vulnerability and the increased uncertainty of US support have the effect of reducing Taipei’s bargaining power with China, he said, for the rising difficulty of defending against a Chinese attack is likely to raise doubt about the utility of coming to Taiwan’s defense.
“Compounding the problem is the decline in Taiwan’s defense budget as a percentage of GDP over the years, leading some analysts to question Taiwan’s determination to defend itself,” he said.
A reassessment of US arms sales to Taiwan would have tremendous implications for Taiwan’s security, he said.
“Over the decades, US support has been the indispensable factor for the survival of the island [Taiwan],” Wang said.
“The arms sales, in addition to strengthening Taiwan’s defense, also indicate the level of political support from Washington,” he added.
The risk for Taiwan is that because of the cross-strait power asymmetry, “Beijing can easily take back what it gives out — intentions can change,” Wang said.
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