The odds of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Taipei mayoral candidate Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) winning the special municipality election are greater than those of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), a university prediction center said yesterday.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center said the probability that Su would win the Nov. 27 poll stood at NT$51.9, while Hau was NT$48.4.
The number of votes Su would win also exceeded that of Hau — with Su’s price at NT$55.6 to Hau’s NT$46.8.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting its probability.
Su and Hau have been neck-and-neck since they announced their candidacies. However, Su’s prices began to outstrip those of Hau and passed the NT$50 benchmark in September.
In Sinbei City — the name by which Taipei County will be known after it is upgraded in December — the DPP and KMT candidates remained locked in a tight race. The likelihood of DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) winning the mayoral elections was NT$49.1 against NT$52.1 for her KMT opponent, former vice premier Eric Chu (朱立倫).
The poll showed that Tsai’s price stood at NT49.3 in terms of number of votes she would win, while Chu’s was NT$50.7.
KMT Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) has maintained his lead over the DPP’s Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) in the Greater Taichung race. However, his lead has narrowed, from 42 percentage points in May to 12.6 percentage points yesterday. His latest price was NT$56.5, while Su Jia-chyuan’s was NT$43.9.
The poll predicted that Hu would collect 51.3 percent of the votes, versus 49.8 percent for Su Jia-chyuan.
DPP candidates have a seemingly insurmountable advantage in the south, the center said.
For Greater Kaohsiung, the possibility of Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) of the DPP winning remains high, though it has declined gradually after reaching a high of NT$89 in June. It fell to NT$79.3 in July and NT$56.2 yesterday.
Her KMT challenger, Legislator Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), however, has made dramatic progress. Huang’s price has been as been as low as NT$14 or NT$16, but yesterday it was NT$23.4. That’s the same figure as Kaohsiung County Commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興), who is running in the mayoral race as an independent.
As for the number of votes they would get, Chen’s price was NT$57.9 against Yang’s NT$24 and Huang’s NT$22.
In Greater Tainan, the margin between DPP candidate William Lai (賴清德) and his KMT opponent Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財) remains large, with Lai’s price standing at NT$91.2 and Kuo’s at NT$8.7.
The poll predicted that Lai would reap 63.3 percent of the votes while Kuo would win 40.1 percent.
RESOLUTIONS DEBATE: Taiwan’s allies said that UN and WHA resolutions cited by China and other nations ‘do not determine Taiwan’s participation in WHO activities’ A proposal to invite Taiwan to this year’s World Health Assembly (WHA) was rejected on Monday, resulting in Taipei’s absence from the annual meeting for a ninth consecutive year, although partners spoke up for Taiwan’s participation at the first day of the meeting. The first agenda item after the opening was a “two-on-two debate” on a proposal to invite Taiwan to participate at the WHA as an observer. Similar to previous years, two countries made statements in favor of the proposal, while two others expressed their opposition. Philippine Secretary of Health Teodoro Herbosa, president of the 78th WHA, accepted the WHA General Committee’s
Palauan President Surangel Whipps Jr arrived in Taiwan last night to kick off his first visit to the country since beginning his second term earlier this year. After arriving at Taoyuan International Airport at around 6:30 pm, Whipps and his delegation were welcomed by Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍). Speaking to gathered media, the Palauan leader said he was excited and honored to be back in Taiwan on his first state visit to Taiwan since he was sworn in this January. Among those traveling with Whipps is Minister of State Gustav N. Aitaro, Public Infrastructure
Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) on Friday laid out the Cabinet’s updated policy agenda and recapped the government’s achievements ahead of the one-year anniversary of President William Lai’s (賴清德) inauguration. Cho said the government had made progress across a range of areas, including rebuilding Hualien, cracking down on fraud, improving pedestrian safety and promoting economic growth. “I hope the public will not have the impression that the Cabinet only asked the legislature to reconsider a bunch of legal amendments,” Cho said, calling the moves “necessary” to protect constitutional governance and the public’s interest. The Cabinet would work toward achieving its “1+7” plan, he said. The
Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) hosted a dinner in Taipei last night with key Taiwanese suppliers to celebrate the successful mass production of the company’s new Blackwell AI systems. Speaking to the media earlier yesterday, Huang thanked Nvidia’s Taiwanese partners for their contributions to the company’s ecosystem, while also sharing his plans to meet with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) founder Morris Chang (張忠謀). In response to rumors that Nvidia will launch a downgraded Hopper H20 chip for China in July, Huang dismissed the reports, saying, “That is not true.” He clarified that there
RSS