The possibility that Kaohsiung County Commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興) might win the November mayoral elections in Greater Kaohsiung has shifted dramatically after he officially announced his bid on Monday, a university prediction center said yesterday.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center said the odds that Yang would win the November polls stood at NT$15.10 yesterday.
Yang’s value has been fluctuating dramatically since the rumor circulated last month that he would stand as an independent candidate in the election. He hinted at his intention to run on Aug. 3 before making a formal announcement. His price stood at NT$3.20 on July 28 and jumped to NT$41.30 on Sunday, before dropping to NT$15.10 yesterday.
Yang’s entry will turn the race into a three-way contest with Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順).
Chen continued to hold a significant lead, with her probability of winning the poll remaining at NT$68.90 yesterday. While this was a drop from NT$79.30 on July 28, it has stabilized at NT$68 to NT$69.
Huang continued to lag at NT$14 to NT$15, after declining from NT$16.80 on July 28. The latest value as of yesterday was NT$15.
In Greater Tainan, although the margin between DPP candidate William Lai (賴清德) and his KMT opponent, Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財), remained large, the possibility that Tainan Mayor Hsu Tain-tsair (?]) of the DPP would follow Yang and run as an independent had begun to affect Lai’s prospects.
Lai’s price dropped from NT$90.20 on July 28 to NT$85 on Aug. 4 and sank to NT$66.50 on Tuesday, one day after Yang made his official announcement.
The latest value for Kuo was NT$35. His price has gradually climbed from NT$15.50 on July 28.
Observers said the numbers could be a setback for Yang, who has vowed to end his two-decade run in politics if he loses the November elections.
In an interview with CTi TV on Tuesday, Yang repeated his allegations that the DPP primary was unfair and biased in favor of Chen’s campaign.
However, he also denied his break with the DPP meant he was looking to join the KMT.
“If I lose in this election, I will withdraw from politics,” he said.
Meanwhile, in an open letter released by former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) office yesterday, Chen Shui-bian said he recognized Yang’s performance over the years, but added that it was unrealistic to think that the KMT would dump Huang and back Yang.
Appealing to Yang to reconsider his decision, the former president urged unity and expressed the hope that all candidates who identify with Taiwan would win the November elections.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY VINCENT Y. CHAO
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