The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) yesterday forecast that two to four typhoons would hit the nation this year, and that there was a good chance they would come in the fall and develop into strong typhoons.
As of the end of last month, only one typhoon had formed in the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean this year, which is much lower than the average of four-and-a-half typhoons in the same period in previous years, the bureau said.
Forecaster Cheng Ming-dean (鄭明典) said that about 20 to 23 typhoons could form in the northwest Pacific Ocean this year, which is lower than the average of 26.6. However, of the typhoons that could form in this area, only two to four were likely to pose a threat to Taiwan.
The typhoon season, which typically affects Taiwan from July to September, is expected to see stronger typhoons nearer to autumn.
The temperature at the center of the Pacific Ocean would affect where typhoons or tropical storms form, Cheng said.
“In the beginning of the typhoon season, because the typhoons form on the western part of the ocean and are closer to Taiwan, there is less chance that one would develop into a strong typhoon,” he said.
However, Cheng said that as the summer season ends and fall approaches, typhoons or tropical storms would likely form further east, near Guam. As a result, the typhoons are more likely to become stronger because they have had more time to form out at sea.
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