The odds of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 rose slightly after Sunday’s debate with Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on a trade pact the administration seeks to sign with Beijing, according to a university prediction market yesterday.
On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of Ma winning re-election was NT$35.40, National Chengchi University Center for Prediction Market said.
It was higher than any other potential challengers such as Tsai, former premiers Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and Frank Hsieh (謝長廷). The likelihood for Tsai to win the 2012 election was NT$34.28, and that for Su and Hsieh was NT$14.90 and NT$6.80 respectively.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.
Since the center opened trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11 last year, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but rose to NT$70 in mid-June before falling to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.
After then-premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) resigned in September, the price returned to NT$63.2 and remained at around NT$60 for the following two months, the center said.
Since Ma took over as KMT chairman, the center said the number had steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5. The figure fell below NT$50 after the “three-in-one” local elections in December last year.
Su’s prices exceeded Ma’s on Jan. 8 this year for the first time, but the prices for Ma and Su held steady at around NT$35 since then. Hsieh also caught up in January, but his prices have held steady below NT$30 since January, trailing behind Ma and Su by NT$5 to NT$7.
Tsai emerged as the black horse among her male colleagues. The center attributed her growing popularity to a string of election victories. Under her leadership, the DPP has made significant gains in legislative by-elections.
The prospects for her winning the next presidential election jumped to NT$40 in January and beat the prices of Su and Hsieh on Jan. 29. Since February, her prices have stayed at around NT$40, about NT$3 to NT$8 more than those of Su and Hsieh.
Before Sunday’s debate, the possibility of Ma being re-elected was between NT$30 and NT$33, against Tsai’s NT$40. The chance of Su winning the 2012 election dropped from NT$18.4 to NT$5, while that for Hsieh floated between NT$7 and NT$10.
After the debate, the price for Ma rose NT$2 to NT$35.40, and that for Tsai dropped NT$7 to NT$34.28. Su’s, however, grew by NT$10 to NT$14.90, the center said.
Four factors led to the declaration of a typhoon day and the cancelation of classes yesterday, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) said. Work and classes were canceled across Taiwan yesterday as Typhoon Krathon was forecast to make landfall in the southern part of the country. However, northern Taiwan had only heavy winds during the day and rain in the evening, leading some to criticize the cancelation. Speaking at a Taipei City Council meeting yesterday, Chiang said the decision was made due to the possibility of landslides and other problems in mountainous areas, the need to avoid a potentially dangerous commute for those
There are 77 incidents of Taiwanese travelers going missing in China between January last year and last month, the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) said. More than 40 remain unreachable, SEF Secretary-General Luo Wen-jia (羅文嘉) said on Friday. Most of the reachable people in the more than 30 other incidents were allegedly involved in fraud, while some had disappeared for personal reasons, Luo said. One of these people is Kuo Yu-hsuan (郭宇軒), a 22-year-old Taiwanese man from Kaohsiung who went missing while visiting China in August. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office last month said in a news statement that he was under investigation
PRO-CHINA SLOGANS: Two DPP members criticized police officers’ lack of action at the scene, saying that law enforcement authorities should investigate the incident Chinese tourists allegedly interrupted a protest in Taipei on Tuesday held by Hong Kongers, knocked down several flags and shouted: “Taiwan and Hong Kong belong to China.” Hong Kong democracy activists were holding a demonstration as Tuesday was China’s National Day. A video posted online by civic group Hong Kong Outlanders shows a couple, who are allegedly Chinese, during the demonstration. “Today is China’s National Day, and I won’t allow the displaying of these flags,” the male yells in the video before pushing some demonstrators and knocking down a few flagpoles. Radio Free Asia reported that some of the demonstrators
An aviation jacket patch showing a Formosan black bear punching Winnie the Pooh has become popular overseas, including at an aviation festival held by the Japan Air Self-Defense Force at the Ashiya Airbase yesterday. The patch was designed last year by Taiwanese designer Hsu Fu-yu (徐福佑), who said that it was inspired by Taiwan’s countermeasures against frequent Chinese military aircraft incursions. The badge shows a Formosan black bear holding a Republic of China flag as it punches Winnie the Pooh — a reference to Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) — who is dressed in red and is holding a honey pot with
RSS