While Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters celebrated Saturday’s by-election successes, prominent party officials have kept out of the spotlight, remaining silent over plans for the next set of important elections — December’s special municipality elections.
A stony silence fell at party headquarters in Taipei City on Saturday despite closing poll results that showed the DPP leading in three of the four by-elections. A few minutes after 6pm and 15 minutes after the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) admitted defeat, DPP Secretary-General Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) thanked voters for supporting the party, but stopped short of calling the results a success.
Visibly subdued, Su said: “Winning one election does not necessarily mean that the party will win future elections.”
PHOTO: LU CHUN-WEI, TAIPEI TIMES
His comments that the DPP still had a long way to go to regain public trust came after what should have been a further sign that the party’s policies were working. The party swept all legislative seats up for grabs in January’s by-elections. The three seats gained on Saturday bring the party’s total number of legislative seats up to 33, a improvement over its disastrous showing in 2008.
In her first public appearance since the results, DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) also tried to downplay the victory, saying that she was “relieved” at the results. This is despite the party’s earlier forecast that predicted it would win only two seats.
While some say the victory will boost the DPP’s chances in December, analysts cautioned that Saturday’s vote was a greater reflection of the KMT’s failures than the DPP’s successes and that the party could face challenges ahead.
“The KMT lost because its supporters didn’t come out to vote,” said Lai I-chung (賴怡忠), a researcher at Taiwan Thinktank and a former Democratic Progressive Party official. “The DPP’s votes didn’t increase dramatically; their support base didn’t expand.”
This was seen in Taoyuan County, where political commentators say DPP legislator-elect Huang Jen-chu’s (黃仁杼) narrow 2,800-vote win was because of a three-way split that divided pan blue voters in the KMT stronghold.
The DPP is concerned that the KMT will avoid party splits like the one in Taoyuan before the more important December elections, which are widely seen as a precursor to the 2012 presidential election, Lai said.
In tacit acknowledgment that the party believes it will face a stronger and more united KMT in December, DPP officials said a key factor in securing future elections was whether the party could prove to the public that it had changed and that it could govern.
“The next [election] will be the true test to see if we are a mature, steady and comprehensive party,” said Tsai, speaking through Su. “The DPP will have no more room for mistakes.”
While the party has been riding high on the success of its recent by-election wins, it played down the weekend’s success for fear that it would have a hard time repeating the results.
“The momentum is there, but future wins like Saturday’s will be much more difficult,” said Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政), head of the political science department at Soochow University.
The DPP will also have to face problems with party unity before December, Lo said, adding that while a split of the like the KMT experienced was unlikely, but the DPP would have to tread carefully to avoid dividing the party’s limited resources.
“The DPP was able to focus its resources on the four counties during the by-elections,” Lo said. “But they can’t match the KMT’s resources nationwide.”
Rifts have already taken place in Tainan City, where four DPP politicians have announced bids. Similarly, Kaohsiung City and Kaohsiung County chiefs have announced their intentions to vie for the party’s nomination in the soon-to-be-merged municipality.
“The DPP is also facing other tough choices — some of their potential nominees could also be key choices in the 2012 presidential race,” Lai said in reference to Tsai and former premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌), who has been widely tipped to run in Taipei City.
Meanwhile, analysts also warn that Tsai, Su Tseng-chang or any candidates the party nominates will have a tough time defeating the KMT’s large support base nationwide.
Lin Chi-wen (林繼文), a political science professor at National Chengchi University, said another reason the DPP has downplayed its success was because of an understanding that most people voted on local issues during Saturday’s by-elections.
“Regardless of how you interpret it, this was still a local election and local elections don’t necessarily correspond to national elections,” Lin said.
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