The recently announced arms sale is likely to give a short-term boost to the flagging popularity of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) by making him look strong in standing up to China, but may delay the critical trade deals he has pushed.
Ma came to power in 2008 on a platform of promoting detente with China and has agreed to several trade and transit deals, opening direct flights and welcoming tourists.
Ma’s acceptance of a US$6.4 billion package of weapons such as advanced Patriot missiles in the teeth of strong Chinese opposition is a riposte to opponents in Taiwan who accuse him and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) of getting too close to Beijing.
“This will give Ma points, though they could be limited,” said Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明), political scientist at Soochow University in Taipei. “He’s still looking more at domestic issues.”
Ma’s popularity has fallen in polls over the last six months over local issues such as the heavily criticized response to Typhoon Morakot in August and the lifting of a ban on certain US beef imports that had been imposed because of concerns over mad cow disease.
Analysts said the arms sale should see support for the KMT strengthen ahead of legislative by-elections later this month.
Over the weekend, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office warned that the arms sales could obstruct the peaceful development of cross-strait ties.
“Beijing’s strong reaction to Washington’s announcement of weapon sales to Taiwan is a reflection of Beijing’s lack of confidence about the future’s peaceful solution of [sic] Taiwan,” said Zhu Feng (朱楓), a regional security specialist at Peking University.
And any boost in popularity for Ma will fade fast if he fails to fulfill public expectations for 66 more advanced F-16 fighter aircraft and US help with a submarine upgrade, items crucial to narrowing China’s military advantage, experts said.
Those weapons, which had been requested by Taiwan, were not part of the package announced on Friday, which comprised five separate sales, including Black Hawk helicopters and missile interceptors.
“These items are not enough for a more secure feeling,” said Alexander Huang (黃介正), strategic studies professor at Tamkang University. “We do need some advanced jet fighters and we do need some underwater systems.”
Neither Washington nor Taipei appears likely to push hard for more weapons systems given Beijing’s response, which threatens already tense Sino-US relations.
China is already expected to punish Taiwan over the recent arms announcement by suspending economic exchanges, though it has yet to say exactly how cross-strait cooperation will be affected.
“They won’t be canceling talks because of this, but minor exchanges might be delayed, canceled or rescheduled,” said Joseph Lau, an economist with Credit Suisse in Hong Kong.
But the economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) Taipei hopes to sign with Beijing could get pushed back as far as next year, said Raymond Wu, managing director of Taipei-based political risk consultancy e-telligence.
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