Researchers yesterday cautioned that Taiwan should brace itself for more torrential downpours and extreme weather in the future.
According to a joint study conducted by Academia Sinica, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and National Taiwan University, the increase in global temperatures caused by global warming will result in a dramatic increase in heavy rains and a reduction in intermediate and smaller rains.
These findings, which have already been published in the leading journal Geophysical Research Letters, differ from studies previously conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
UN BODY
The IPCC, a UN body, has estimated that average rainfall is expected to increase about 20 percent, while an increase in heavy rainfall is only “very likely.”
Shaw Liu (劉紹臣), director of the Research Center for Environmental Changes at Academia Sinica, said that their study differs because it was conducted using a quantification analysis of extreme rain patterns and world temperatures.
Liu said that as a result, their data pool was 10 times larger than those used by the IPCC.
CONSERVATIVE
Liu said that the IPCC’s estimates were uncertain and conservative. In contrast, he said, the Academia Sinica method produces a more precise weather model that accurately showcases these weather extremities.
He said that evidence for his model could already be seen following the increase in heavy rains resulting from the rise in global temperature seen throughout the past 10 years.
HEAVY RAINFALL
Their study claimed that Taiwan’s heavy rainfall would increase by 140 percent for every 1ºC rise in temperature, while smaller rains would decrease by 70 percent.
The study said that with the 0.7°C temperature increase from 1961 to 2005, Taiwan’s heavy rains had already increased by 100 percent. Another 0.7ºC increase is expected to take place before 2030.
Liu said that the government needed to act fast in implementing the National Land Plan Act (國土計畫法).
Liu said that because it was too late to stave off the effects of global warming in Taiwan, the public, along with the government, needed to be better prepared.
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