General Xu Caihou (徐才厚), China’s second-ranking military officer, was scheduled to arrive in Washington yesterday for an 11-day US visit. Among the topics expected to be discussed are senior-level talks on US arms sales to Taiwan.
Xu, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, will have a closed-door meeting at the Pentagon with US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.
While the formal agenda remains secret, Qian Lihua (錢利華), director of the Chinese Defense Ministry’s Foreign Affairs Office, said in an interview with China’s state-run China Daily on Friday that Taiwan was China’s core interest and that the handling of the Taiwan question had left bilateral exchanges “shifting like a roller coaster.”
The newspaper said Xu had recommended before his visit to Washington that “the two countries respect each other’s key interests.”
“Each weapons sale between the Chinese island and the US stifles the China-US military relationship. China stopped its military contact with the US because of a US$6.5 billion arms sale to Taiwan in October 2008. The US arms sales to Taiwan leaves relations between the two countries unstable,” the China Daily said.
A Washington congressional source said the tone of the China Daily interview and the way it centered Xu’s visit on arms sales to Taiwan was a clear indication that this issue would be at the top of the general’s agenda.
Another source with close ties to the Pentagon, however, said the US would try to focus the talks with Xu on strengthening the direct US relationship with China’s rapidly modernizing military.
With US President Barack Obama scheduled to make his first visit to Beijing next month, Xu is expected to pressure the US leadership — holding out greater military communication as a carrot — to obtain assurances that weapons sales will be kept to a minimum.
Washington sources said that by way of reply, the Obama administration would argue that Beijing should stop its military buildup across the Taiwan Strait and significantly reduce the 1,500-plus missiles now aimed at Taiwan.
Such a move, they will insist, would improve confidence on all fronts and reduce Taiwan’s perceived need for defensive weapons.
They will also say that President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) friendship drive and willingness to make concessions to Beijing deserves some thanks in the form of a reduced military threat from China.
Last week, the Washington Post reported that while Obama wanted to strengthen ties with Beijing on efforts to combat climate change, address the global financial crisis and contain nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran, his most important aim was to improve the US relationship with the Chinese military.
The Post said there was concern that US and Chinese forces may find themselves “bumping into each other” without formal mechanisms in place for the two militaries to iron out disagreements.
The newspaper also quoted a senior Chinese diplomat as saying that Taiwan was “the one issue that could jeopardize our relations with the United States.”
A recent Rand Corp study concluded that a Chinese missile attack could now destroy every runway at Taiwan’s half-dozen main fighter bases and damage all aircraft parked on ramps.
“But this strategic shift has not been accompanied by significant talks between China and the United States, which is legally bound to provide for Taiwan’s defense,” the Post said.
Four months ago, Beijing provided Washington with a list of seven major problems they wanted solved in order to improve US-China relations.
The very first item on the list was a demand that the US stop selling weapons to Taiwan.
Early next year, Obama will decide whether to sell Black Hawk helicopters, Patriot anti-missile batteries and 66 advanced F-16 fighter planes to Taiwan.
Some say Obama could get away with selling the helicopters and the anti-missile batteries without severely damaging US-China relations.
But the message Xu is expected to deliver over the next few days is that the sale of F-16s would have a negative impact on a large array of the other issues — including military cooperation — that are of key concern Washington.
During his visit, Xu will tour the US Naval Academy in Maryland, US Strategic Command in Nebraska, Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, the US Army’s Fort Benning in Georgia, the North Island Naval Air Station in San Diego and US Pacific Command in Hawaii.
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