Climate change will increasingly affect the world’s economy, but with advanced calculations scientists can help predict future conditions and devise strategies to circumvent drastic economic losses, the National Science Council (NSC) said at a press conference yesterday.
“One phenomenon that has been affecting Taiwan’s weather significantly in the past 20 years is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO),” said NSC-sponsored researcher and National Chung-Hsing University applied economics professor Chen Chi-chung (陳吉仲).
El Nino is defined by ocean temperatures — when the temperature of the Pacific is on average 0.4ºC higher over a six month period than previous annual averages, the year is described as an El Nino year, Chen said.
In the past, El Nino occurred every three to seven years, Chen said. Climate change means that the probability and severity of ENSO occurring, or its reverse condition the La Nina, which means the ocean average temperature over 6 months is 0.4ºC lower than the annual average, has increased.
One of the most well known ENSO events occurred in 1992 to 1993 and caused US$8 billion in global economic losses, Chen said. In 2002 a similarly severe case of the phenomenon induced a drought and US$6.6 billion losses in Australia.
“El Nino affects the global economy in that it causes heavy rain fall in some parts of the world, while inducing drought in other regions, affecting the supply and demand of water resources” Chen said.
For example, from 1997 to 1998, a serious ENSO caused the worst ever drought in southeast Asia, while the rainfall was 30 times the annual average in Peru, Chen said.
“In a Peruvian desert, the 1997 ENSO brought heavy precipitation which formed a 2,000km² lake,” he said.
Unaware of upcoming weather conditions, farmers could be planting as usual, oblivious to the fact that a flood was coming, or the integrated circuit industry could be stranded with no water with which to clean their chips, he said.
“With modern technology scientists can forecast these potential catastrophes and advise the agricultural industry on farming schedules, while rationing water resources for water-reliant industries such as chip manufacturers,” he said.
And that information is very useful, as the Hsinchu science park alone contributes 10 percent of Taiwan’s GDP, Chen said.
“For example, if an El Nino year is predicted, as a means to shift water usage priorities, the government could strategically set domestic, industrial and agricultural water prices so that water resources can be wisely distributed,” he said.
In addition to water prices, rice prices statistically increase 10 percent to 16 percent in severe ENSO years. If the condition can be accurately predicted, the government can similarly stock up on rice supplies, he said.
“Having a relatively accurate system like we do now proves to be extremely economically valuable — if water resource policies referenced a prediction and made the relevant water price changes, the government could potentially gain NT$117 million.”
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), spokeswoman Yang Chih-yu (楊智伃) and Legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh (謝龍介) would be summoned by police for questioning for leading an illegal assembly on Thursday evening last week, Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) said today. The three KMT officials led an assembly outside the Taipei City Prosecutors’ Office, a restricted area where public assembly is not allowed, protesting the questioning of several KMT staff and searches of KMT headquarters and offices in a recall petition forgery case. Chu, Yang and Hsieh are all suspected of contravening the Assembly and Parade Act (集會遊行法) by holding
PRAISE: Japanese visitor Takashi Kubota said the Taiwanese temple architecture images showcased in the AI Art Gallery were the most impressive displays he saw Taiwan does not have an official pavilion at the World Expo in Osaka, Japan, because of its diplomatic predicament, but the government-backed Tech World pavilion is drawing interest with its unique recreations of works by Taiwanese artists. The pavilion features an artificial intelligence (AI)-based art gallery showcasing works of famous Taiwanese artists from the Japanese colonial period using innovative technologies. Among its main simulated displays are Eastern gouache paintings by Chen Chin (陳進), Lin Yu-shan (林玉山) and Kuo Hsueh-hu (郭雪湖), who were the three young Taiwanese painters selected for the East Asian Painting exhibition in 1927. Gouache is a water-based
Taiwan would welcome the return of Honduras as a diplomatic ally if its next president decides to make such a move, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said yesterday. “Of course, we would welcome Honduras if they want to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan after their elections,” Lin said at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, when asked to comment on statements made by two of the three Honduran presidential candidates during the presidential campaign in the Central American country. Taiwan is paying close attention to the region as a whole in the wake of a
OFF-TARGET: More than 30,000 participants were expected to take part in the Games next month, but only 6,550 foreign and 19,400 Taiwanese athletes have registered Taipei city councilors yesterday blasted the organizers of next month’s World Masters Games over sudden timetable and venue changes, which they said have caused thousands of participants to back out of the international sporting event, among other organizational issues. They also cited visa delays and political interference by China as reasons many foreign athletes are requesting refunds for the event, to be held from May 17 to 30. Jointly organized by the Taipei and New Taipei City governments, the games have been rocked by numerous controversies since preparations began in 2020. Taipei City Councilor Lin Yen-feng (林延鳳) said yesterday that new measures by
RSS