If China were to attack Taiwan in the near future, it would most likely do so in the next three years under a Chinese Nationalist Party president (KMT), a Japanese academic said yesterday at a forum discussing the future of Taiwan's international relations.
Hisahiko Okazaki, the former director general for foreign affairs at the Japanese Defense Ministry and the current director of the Okazaki Institute, said China's vow to take Taiwan by force if it declared independence was mostly an "empty" threat because Beijing would not want to risk becoming the common enemy of both Tokyo and Washington by attacking Taiwan.
China's rhetoric, he said, has always been that the People's Liberation Army would attack Taiwan if it made any unilateral changes that altered the "status quo."
"But China never promised to refrain from using force as long as Taiwan does not declare independence," he said.
In fact, Beijing could be tempted to attack Taiwan if a pro-unification government were elected next month, as this would hasten the unification process, he said.
If a pro-Taiwan independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate won, however, Beijing could be deterred from making any drastic move because the election of a DPP president would demonstrate the increased Taiwan-centric mentality in the country, he said.
Okazaki said, however, that regardless of which party came to power, China would not dare take Taiwan by force because Beijing is aware that it does not have the military capabilities to outmaneuver the US.
After 1969, when the US returned Okinawa to Japan, the Americans knew they needed a base in Asia to offset Russia's and China's influence in the region, he said.
Under the terms of the security treaty signed between the US and Japan signed in 1951, the US also promised to come to Japan's aid if there were a threat to its security.
He said the Japanese ambassador to the US at the time had made it clear that instability in the Taiwan Strait would directly jeopardize Japan's safety. Protecting Taiwan therefore meant protecting Taiwan, he said.
"With US and Japanese determination to maintain peace in the Strait, Taiwan should be safe from Chinese attack as long as Taiwanese leaders refuse to give in to Beijing's threats," he said.
Okazaki said the "one-country, two systems" model in Hong Kong had failed miserably and that Taiwan should never accept such an arrangement.
Should the Taiwanese leadership agree to a Hong Kong model, it should at least demand that Taiwan receive a seat at the UN in exchange, he said.
Peng Ming-min (
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