A Taiwanese academic speculated in Washington last week that the pan-blue alliance will win 71 seats in the legislative elections next month, with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) claiming just 39.
Wu Chung-li (吳重禮), a researcher at Academia Sinica, made his forecast at a seminar sponsored by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Wu estimated that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), the People First Party (PFP) and the New Party would together win 71 legislative seats -- 48 regional seats, 18 legislator-at-large seats and five Aboriginal seats -- accounting for 62.8 percent of the 113-member legislature.
By comparison, he said he expects the DPP to win just 39 seats -- 25 regional seats, 13 legislator-at-large seats and one Aboriginal seat -- accounting for 34.5 percent of the legislature.
The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), an ally of the DPP in the pan-green camp, could win 3 regional seats, he said.
Wu based his speculation on the two camps' performances in major elections from 2004 to last year, including the 2004 legislative and presidential polls, the 2005 provincial city and county chief elections and last year's special municipality mayoral elections.
If he is correct, Wu said next month's legislative polls will mark a watershed in Taiwanese politics.
He said the pan-blue alliance would cement its power base in northern, central and most eastern regions, while the DPP would prevail in southern Taiwan. He said this would indicate "a serious rift in society."
Wu predicted that small parties such as the TSU, the New Party and the PFP would all disappear from the political map.
However, he refused to predict the outcome of the March 22 presidential election between DPP candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) and his KMT rival Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).
FEELING MISUNDERSTOOD: Media speculation has fueled confusion about the KMT’s reasons for skipping a Chinese forum and delaying an AIT meeting, party sources said The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) on Sunday said that it is not seeking to improve relations with the US or China at the expense of the other, and that its relations with the countries would be topic-based. The party has faced questions over its foreign policy after it on Monday last week announced its withdrawal from the annual Straits Forum and delayed planned talks with the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT). The party has also taken a tough stance on the importation of US meat containing ractopamine, while also lambasting China for increasing its military activity in and around the Taiwan Strait. Following
Taipei City Councilor Wang Hao (王浩) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) on Monday called for security improvements to the MRT, as fare evasion has increased more than 13-fold on the metropolitan railway system over the past five years. Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) has spoken out against fare evasion and other contraventions of MRT regulations, but since he took office in 2015 the number of contraventions has more than doubled, Wang said, adding that there were 537 cases in 2015 compared with 959 last year. A video was posted to YouTube in June showing people how to evade paying a fare,
CONTROVERSY: NHIA Director-General Lee Po-chang said an outcry over overseas Taiwanese not paying premiums, but having coverage, is pushing rule amendments Rules changes are being considered that would force Taiwanese who permanently live abroad to pay National Health Insurance (NHI) premiums for the period they were overseas before they can re-enroll in the system, National Health Insurance Administration (NHIA) Director-General Lee Po-chang (李伯璋) yesterday said. The case of a married Taiwanese couple who lived in the US for about 30 years, but returned to Taiwan in April and tested positive for COVID-19 has again sparked public debate over why Taiwanese living abroad are allowed to use NHI resources, — although the couple’s expenses were not covered by the NHI. An often cited example
AN EXAMPLE: After attending a memorial service for Lee Teng-hui, Mori said the former president’s career reflected the importance of peace and democracy Using military force to resolve conflict is no longer workable in this new era, which requires peaceful discussion, former Japanese prime minister Yoshiro Mori said yesterday before leaving Taipei. Mori made the remarks at a news conference in front of the EVA Sky Jet Center at Taipei International Airport (Songshan airport), after leading a delegation to attend the official memorial service for former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) in New Taipei City’s Tamsui District (淡水). This was Mori’s second trip to mourn Lee; his last was on Aug. 9. Although he walked with a crutch, Mori, 83, chose to stand right in front of