Taiwan is unlikely to have a warm winter this year thanks to the "La Nina" (
"The [La Nina] effect is expected to continue until spring next year," said Daniel Wu (吳德榮), the bureau's director of forecasting.
La Nina, or "the little girl" in Spanish, refers to the phenomenon where the sea surface temperature measured near the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean is lower than normal by 0.5?C.
The bureau said that the phenomenon of lower sea surface temperature has been continuing for about four months in the stated area.
The bureau defines a "warm winter" as one where temperatures are higher than normal one-third of the time.
Wu said there was no causal relationship between La Nina and lower temperatures during winter time. He said La Nina has occurred 18 times in the past 50 years and records show it hardly had any effect on local temperatures during winter.
However, cold air masses from the north normally approach the country in the winter, raising chances of extremely low temperatures, he said.
"La Nina will only strengthen the seasonal wind from the northeast, facilitating the movement of cold air from the north to the south," Wu said.
Even though the average temperature this winter is expected to be lower than last year, it will still fall within the normal range of winter temperature, he said.
Information provided by the bureau showed that between 1951 and 1960, the average number of days with temperatures falling below 10?C was 12.3.
Between 2001 and this year, however, the number has dropped to 4.6.
The bureau's records also showed that the average winter temperature in the past 10 years was about 18?C.
Yesterday, the lowest temperature was reported in Chiayi, which was measured at 9.3?C.
Wu also forecast that rainfall this month would be close to the average amount in winter.
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