China's anti-satellite missile test in January increased the military threat to Taiwan by demonstrating a limited ability to blind US satellites that would be deployed in defense of Taiwan, a report released yesterday said.
"The test is a vivid example of how China's emerging military capabilities will complicate the strategic environment confronting US forces for decades to come," the study said.
The report, sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, an independent private research group based in New York, was titled US-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A Responsible Course.
In the January test, China used a missile to destroy one of its own old weather satellites in low-Earth polar orbit. It was the first time China had successfully tested an anti-satellite system. Three months after the test, the report said, China's motives for conducting the test remain unclear.
China waited almost two weeks before publicly acknowledging it had carried out the test.
"China opposes the weaponization of space and any arms race," a spokesman said, adding it had never participated and would not participate in a space arms race.
"The test is not targeted at any country and will not threaten any country," the spokesman added.
While China could attack Taiwan with missiles, the study said: "It can only take and hold Taiwan if it can win and sustain control of the space, air and waters around Taiwan -- a difficult task without US intervention, and nearly impossible should the United States intervene in a China-Taiwan war."
The co-authors of the report were Carla Hills, a former US trade representative, and Dennis Blair, former president and CEO of the Institute for Defense Analyses, a federally funded research center.
The study said China is also developing strategies to protect its growing global interests, the mere existence of which, it said, poses challenges for the US.
"China does not need to surpass the United States, or even catch up with the United States, in order to complicate US defense planning or influence US decision-making in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait or elsewhere," the study said.
It added, however, that there was no evidence to support the notion that China would become a military competitor of the US by 2030.
"By virtue of its heritage and experience, its equipment and level of technology, its personnel and the resources it spends, the United States enjoys space, air and naval superiority over China," it said.
It said the US must try to integrate China into the global community to build on converging interests.
When China's conduct is at odds with US vital interests, the US must be prepared to defend itself through -- "adherence to its ideals of human rights, the rule of law and representative government, diplomatic power and influence, economic strength and dynamism, and military capabilities," the report said.
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