Thu, Feb 15, 2007 page3

• Analysis: Analysts split on Ma's election bid

  • By Mo Yan-chih / STAFF REPORTER
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  Observers agree that former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) made a smart political move by turning a legal problem into a political issue when he declared he would still make a run for the presidency just hours after he was indicted for corruption on Tuesday.

  However, they were divided yesterday over whether the indictment would be a political asset.

  "It's a natural and smart move in politics. He downplayed the damage and consolidated support," said Yang Tai-shun (楊泰順), a professor of political science at the Chinese Culture University.

  Lee Shiao-feng (李筱峰), a professor of history at Shih Hsin University, condemned Ma for "taking advantage" of the judicial system and the public by declaring his candidacy so soon after his indictment.

  However, he said the charges may not necessarily be unfavorable for Ma.

  "It's nonsense to accuse the judicial system of oppressing him with the indictment. Why is it that the indictment of first lady Wu Shu-jen (吳淑珍) in the presidential `state affairs fund' case was `justice,' but Ma's indictment is `political oppression?'" Lee said.

  "But he did make himself a tragic hero for pan-blue supporters, and the indictment could become an asset for him," Lee said.

  Two hours after the Taiwan High Court's Black Gold Investigation Center indicted him on corruption charges, Ma resigned as KMT chairman as promised, but also announced his presidential bid during the same speech at KMT headquarters.

  "At this moment, when democracy has been mortally wounded, when social justice does not prevail, I hereby solemnly declare that I will not hesitate to turn anger into strength, and enter the 2008 presidential race," Ma said. "I will not be defeated. I repeat, I will not be defeated."

  Later that night the KMT's Central Standing Committee decided not to accept Ma's resignation and repealed its black-gold exclusion clause, which stipulates that party members must be expelled if indicted. The decision was aimed at preventing Ma from being disqualified as the party's candidate for the 2008 race.

  The exclusion clause had been formulated and revised under Ma's chairmanship.

  Acting KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄) denied that revoking the clause was done just to help Ma. He said the move did not necessarily mean that Ma would be the party's presidential candidate because the former Taipei mayor would still have to compete in the party's primary.

  Observers, however, said rescinding the clause reinforced the KMT's reputation for corruption, while diminishing Ma's efforts to reform the party. With Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) -- a potential presidential contender -- reportedly upset by the move, observers warned that it could become more difficult to hold the KMT together.

  "Repealing the clause is redundant and hurtful to the KMT and Ma. The party's goal is to keep Ma in the game, but there are other solutions," said Chen Yi-shen (陳儀深), an associate researcher at Academia Sinica's Institute of Modern History.

  Lee said although Ma's victory over Wang in the 2005 KMT chairmanship election consolidated his power and support in the party, he should not ignore old guard members such as Wang and former party chairman Lien Chan (連戰), who have a better relationship with each other than they do with Ma.

  Since party resources would give Ma a better chance as a KMT candidate than as an an independent, Lee said Ma should show more respect to Wang and talk about pairing up in the presidential race to avoid splitting the party.

  Yang and Chen, however, did not see Wang as a great threat. They said many pan-blue supporters still regard Ma as the best candidate, and might not be hurt if he had to run as an independent candidate, they said.

  "The KMT's reputation for corruption never helped Ma's image anyway. A president should have cross-party appeal, and it wouldn't hurt Ma if he distanced himself from the KMT," Yang said.

  While Ma may have temporarily limited the fallout from his indictment, a time-consuming lawsuit and a challenging battle for the presidency await. The election will depend on how the trial develops, as well as Ma's ability to present a persuasive campaign platform and unify party factions, Yang and Chen said.
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