The main message from the municipal elections for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is that President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) alleged corruption is not the only thing that is on voters' minds.
The Kaohsiung mayoral election was, in part, a referendum on the performance of former mayor Frank Hsieh (謝長廷).
Voting for the DPP was also a good way to express disapproval of the performance of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).
The DPP's narrow win in Kaohsiung could not be interpreted as indicative of voters' support for Chen or his administration, said Chao Yung-mau (趙永茂), a political science professor at National Taiwan University.
"Although President Chen may be the main or only factor that influence the DPP's faithful supporters vote, his popularity is not the sole factor in how people vote because the electorate does not identify him as the whole party," Chao said.
In the Taipei mayoral election, Hsieh distanced himself from Chen and declined his offers of support in order to minimize the impact of Chen's corruption allegations on his election campaign.
The strategy worked. Although Hsieh lost to his Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) counterpart, his unexpectedly strong showing boosted his stature.
DPP candidates for next year's legislative election and the 2008 presidential election may have to follow in Hsieh's footsteps in order to stand a better chance of winning, Chao said.
"If the DPP thinks the victory in Kaohsiung will lead to victory in national elections such as the legislative election or even the presidential election, they are mistaken," he said. "When the elections get closer, we will see more party candidates distance themselves from Chen."
Yet Chen will remain president until May 2008 and how he handles this period is of huge importance to both the party and the country.
As Chen no longer faces any trial at the ballot box, analysts said he may feel freer than before.
As the conduct of foreign policy, cross-strait and defense lies in the hands of the president, Wu Chung-li (
"He may know it [the gesture]stands little chance of succeeding, but he will try it anyway," Wu said.
Joseph Tsai (
"The DPP has lost many votes from the middle of the political spectrum because of President Chen's corruption scandals," he said. "The party must look to dramatic gestures although it is well aware that radical constitutional re-engineering project stands little chance of success."
While the DPP is mulling pushing forward the legislative and presidential primaries, analysts said it was unlikely that Chen would want to see the party nominate its presidential candidate ahead of time, for fear that he may prematurely become a lame-duck president although an early nomination may be to the advantage of the party.
"It is wishful thinking that the DPP's four superstars' will want to see the presidential candidate emerge ahead of time because different people have different agendas and their personal interests sometimes run counter to those of the party," Wu said.
As the situation now is in Hsieh's and Premier Su Tseng-chang's (蘇貞昌) favor, Wu said followers of DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun and Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) might not like the idea of picking the presidential candidate now.
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