The US think tank Atlantic Council of the United States (ACUS), in a 20-page report published on Thursday, claimed that major antagonisms within the Taiwan polity seem to rule out any internal long-term consensus on issues such as the "one China" principle, economic ties with China, or national defense strategy.
The report, entitled Taiwan in Search of a Strategic Consensus, goes on to say that this will result in a weakening of the Taiwanese economy, increased isolation internationally, and an erosion of their strategic status should Taiwan enter negotiations with China.
A high-ranking Chinese official involved in Taiwan affairs was quoted in the report, saying that Beijing had no intention to isolate the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government and was even prepared to enter into talks with them if they retain power in the 2008 presidential elections. The official said that Chinese President Hu Jintao (
Hu did, however, emphasize the importance of recognizing the so-called "1992 consensus."
The report said that it was difficult to assess just how serious Chinese leaders were about talks with the DPP, or how flexible they would be regarding the conditions laid down as prerequisites, as Beijing holds that it is yet to see any intention from President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) to hold talks based on the "spirit of 1992." And, says ACUS, the possibility of talks rests very much on political will, and not on words.
According to the report, Taiwan will face many difficult choices over the next year, and is not sufficiently prepared to address its future prosperity or military strategy -- the greatest impediment to these being the lack of internal political consensus, which will weaken Taiwan's overall strategic position. Even with a change of president come the 2008 presidential elections, it may still be very difficult to reach any internal consensus, the report said.
With increased globalization, a new strategic environment is emerging, and even though the US continues to support Taiwan's democracy, Taiwan's importance to US regional strategy may well decline in the future. A continued cross-strait stalemate is likely to lead to stability within an unstable situation, and any miscalculation on the part of either side could lead to confrontation between China and Taiwan, with military confrontation being impossible to rule out, it said.
The report also pointed out that the US remains opposed to any unilateral action resulting in a change in the status quo, and continues to encourage both sides to engage in dialogue. Despite differences regarding the Taiwan question, and economic and political issues between them, the US and China still have common interests, it said.
Four factors led to the declaration of a typhoon day and the cancelation of classes yesterday, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) said. Work and classes were canceled across Taiwan yesterday as Typhoon Krathon was forecast to make landfall in the southern part of the country. However, northern Taiwan had only heavy winds during the day and rain in the evening, leading some to criticize the cancelation. Speaking at a Taipei City Council meeting yesterday, Chiang said the decision was made due to the possibility of landslides and other problems in mountainous areas, the need to avoid a potentially dangerous commute for those
There are 77 incidents of Taiwanese travelers going missing in China between January last year and last month, the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) said. More than 40 remain unreachable, SEF Secretary-General Luo Wen-jia (羅文嘉) said on Friday. Most of the reachable people in the more than 30 other incidents were allegedly involved in fraud, while some had disappeared for personal reasons, Luo said. One of these people is Kuo Yu-hsuan (郭宇軒), a 22-year-old Taiwanese man from Kaohsiung who went missing while visiting China in August. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office last month said in a news statement that he was under investigation
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