Sun, Nov 13, 2005 page3

• Analysts unsure if EU will lift China embargo

  HARD TO TELL Experts say that a complex set of factors makes it anyone's guess if and when the EU will lift its embargo on weapons sales to Beijing

  • CNA, WITH STAFF WRITER
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  It's impossible to predict if and when the EU's weapons-sale embargo on China will be lifted, due to the many complex factors affecting the decision, an academic said yesterday.

  Tang Shao-cheng (湯紹成) of National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations, said that lifting the embargo would first damage the interests of Russia, which is China's biggest weapons supplier. According to Tang, 80 percent of China's weapons are bought from Russia.

  The EU has imposed an embargo on China since the Tiananmen Massacre of 1989, but the issue of lifting the embargo was brought up in late 2003.

  Brian McDonald, director of the European Economic and Trade Office in Taiwan, said that lifting the embargo is "only a political move aimed at being friendly by the European Union."

  "Lifting the embargo will not lead to a sale of large quantities and high-quality weaponry. It does not have anything to do with weapons sales, and the embargo lifting is not even clear yet," McDonald claimed.

  brisk business

  Weapons are still sold to China from European countries even with the embargo. According to Tang, the amount of arms exported to China in 2002 and 2003 by European countries totals 626 million euros (US$735 million), with France the largest exporting country with 277 million euros, followed by the UK (192 million euros), and Italy (150 million euros).

  According to Tang, "the principal reason why Europe wishes to lift this embargo on China is mainly to compensate for its trade deficit. The EU enjoyed a trade surplus with China at the beginning of the 1980's. However, EU-China relations are now marked by a widening EU deficit with China, which was 78.5 billion euros in 2004, and it is the EU's biggest lateral deficit."

  Commenting on the need for new weapons, Professor Kuo Chiu-ching (郭秋慶) of Tamkang University's Institute of European Studies claimed: "The Chinese People's Liberation Army needs new weapons to replace their old ones. The EU will lift the embargo but it will also make China sign some United Nations agreements and other agreements on human rights."

  `too many factors'

  Echoing Kuo's views, Tang said the embargo lifting is just a matter of time, but there are diverse possibilities regarding the changes it might adopt.

  "Too many factors will influence this issue, and noone is sure when it will be lifted. The UK's presidency of the EU lasts until this year, giving the reins to Austria for the first half of next year. In the second half, it will be Finland's turn, but in 2007, France will have to elect a new government. So there are too many factors," to allow for anything but speculation at this point, Tang said.

  Tang said Britain's relations with the US makes it opposed to lifting the embargo, but Austria might adopt a different stance, so there could be changes in this issue in the coming year.

  "Russia already feels threatened by this issue, but it cannot act because it has to maintain its relations with China. This is why a China-Russia large-scale joint military exercise was held this year," Tang said.

  Commenting on Chinese President Hu Jintao's (胡錦濤) recent visit to Europe, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) said that Hu traveled to Europe mostly to discuss economic issues.

  "He might try to talk about it, but in such meetings, economic issues are more suitable," she said.
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