Although it is still hard to say who will gain the leadership of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in Saturday's election, the political situation is likely to become more favorable to the government, with a decrease in the number of irrational confrontations in the legislature, political analysts said yesterday.
The race between Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) for the KMT chairmanship is moving into its final days, and while it is the KMT's internal affair, the overall political situation will change according to who is elected.
A win by Ma might be better for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government in the short term, Hsu Yung-ming (
"If Ma defeats Wang in the election on Saturday, ... [Wang's] power in the Legislative Yuan will be threatened ... and he will have to do something to protect his turf," Hsu said.
As Ma's influence in the legislature would rise if he were KMT chairman, Wang might choose to work with Premier Frank Hsieh (
"To the DPP government, a victory by Ma would probably give it more space to talk about cooperation," Hsu said.
Conciliation
On the other hand, if Wang wins, this may extinguish any hope of the DPP reconciling with the KMT, Hsu said.
"If Wang wins the KMT chairmanship, he may want to link ... the KMT with the People First Party [PFP] to make the pan-blue camp a stable majority in the legislature and to continue to wrestle with President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) government," Hsu said.
Chin Heng-wei (
Chin noted that outgoing KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) has retained much influence throughout the chairmanship campaign.
It was obvious that Lien backs Wang, judging from Lien's recent statements and resolutions the KMT has made in the last few weeks, Chin said.
This could mean Wang would hold to Lien's political line if elected.
Chin added that Ma would have a hard time leading the KMT if he became chairman.
"Ma will face the thorny problem of the KMT's controversial party assets and resolving the divisions created by the election," Chin said.
"How to rid the KMT of the image of being a party of Mainlanders is another issue for Ma," he added.
Besides, Chin said, Ma would inevitably be targeted by Lien, PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) and Wang, who all want to prevent him from growing stronger in the KMT.
"This is all because Ma will be their opponent for the 2008 presidential candidacy," he said.
Analysts also believe the new KMT leader will move away from Lien's political stance of siding with China, as this will be an obstacle on the road to the Presidential Office.
"The KMT will try every means to take back [the presidency] in 2008 and whoever wants to reach this goal can't get too close to the Beijing authorities," Hsu said.
Meanwhile, DPP spokesman Cheng Wen-tsang (
Pro-China
This could work in the DPP's favor.
"After Lien and Soong's visits to China, the atmosphere in the KMT has been filled with opposition to local Taiwanese culture and they show their pro-China stances blatantly," Cheng said.
"We believe such a phenomenon will help the DPP to win more neutral voters and some of the pan-blue supporters who don't want unification with China," he said.
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