The former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, Richard Bush, says that a "window of opportunity" has opened for serious official cross-strait dialogue, but he has peppered his observation with so many "if's" and cautions that he appears to feel that the two sides will not be able to accomplish much before that window closes.
Bush made his comments in a presentation to a number of Washington journalists while unveiling his latest book, Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait, and exhaustive history and analysis of the search for cross-strait peace and the complex web of obstacles to such peace.
Bush told reporters that the window will last until at least the end of next year.
It is marked by a lack of significant national elections and political developments in Taiwan and China, at least until Chinese President Hu Jintao (
In his book, Bush details a host of domestic political restrictions faced by Hu and President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) in their decisions on whether to move toward cross-Strait settlement negotiations.
He singled out Beijing's demand for preconditions for any cross-strait talks, mainly the demand that talks take place under the "one China" principle or under the so-called "1992 consensus."
"China must abandon or significantly modify its requirement that Taiwan accepts preconditions," Bush told reporters.
He also says that in order for Taiwan to be able to negotiate from a strong position, it must first strengthen itself militarily and in other areas, including economically, diplomatically and politically.
This must include a hefty measure of constitutional reform. Among constitutional changes Bush advocates are a streamlining of the executive branch, an end to conflicts of interests among legislators, strengthening of the judiciary, a greater role for the media to promote the public interest, and adoption of a single member district system for legislative elections.
Bush said that any move toward negotiations to solve cross-strait issues should begin through private channels that can reduce mistrust and misunderstanding and explore methods to find ways to kick off official, governmental dialogue. For the near term, Bush feels, "solving the dispute" is not possible, but the two sides can at least "stabilize" the relationship to permit longer-term solutions.
The US, he feels, should stay largely out of the process, acting at most as a mediator, if sufficient trust among the parties can be established.
Bush told reporters that he does not know when the Chinese-language version of his book will be available, but that the Brookings Institution had taken the lead in arranging for translation and publication.
He indicated that he does not expect the process to take too long.
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