Just days before Americans take to the polls, local election observers are asking which candidate would be best for Taiwan amid recent misunderstandings and subsequent clarifications regarding US policy.
Last week's "Colin Powell Incident," as it has come to be called in Taiwan, resulted in confusion and debate here as to whether the US Secretary of State's remarks pointed to shifts in US policy or if it had been a simple slip of the tongue.
Powell stated that "Taiwan does not enjoy sovereignty" and referred to peaceful "reunification." Aides later clarified that there would be no changes in the US' "one China" policy, and that Powell had urged a peaceful "resolution" in a subsequent interview.
Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry also commented on cross-strait affairs. Responding in writing to questions posed by the Hong Kong-based Sing Tao Daily in an interview, he contradicted previous remarks that the "one country two systems" model could be used to resolve the cross-strait stalemate. He wrote that "`one country two systems' can't be replicated for Taiwan."
Given that Kerry has said next to nothing about his policies toward Taiwan, analysts yesterday looked at whether Kerry's comments were an 11th hour reversal of previous statements or just an offhand comment indicating that Taiwan is at best a peripheral issue in the US elections.
"John Kerry is basically going back to the Taiwan policy that the US has held for over 30 years," Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Vice Chairman David Huang (黃偉峰) said.
"Aside from the comments that the `one country two systems' model cannot be replicated in Taiwan, the rest of what Kerry said sounded exactly like the State Department's stance," Huang told the Taipei Times yesterday.
MAC Vice Chairman and spokesman Chiu Tai-san (
The council's official stance however is one of impartiality and as such Chiu declined from commenting on which candidate would be more supportive of Taiwan. He pointed out that no matter who won in the election, the US' general stance on the cross-strait issue was for a peaceful resolution on terms agreed to by people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Tamkang University Institute of American Studies professor and a former MAC Vice Chairman Alexander Huang (
"It's to do with the US' status as the world's only real superpower. If the remarks are not very accurate, it is because every day they have to keep up with the circumstances in so many different regions," Huang said.
The Democratic Party's official platform on Taiwan is brief: "We are committed to a one-China policy and will continue to support a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues that is consistent with the wishes and best interest of the Taiwanese people."
However, Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政), executive director of the Institute for National Policy Research, noted that while the Bush administration has not positively ruled out the possibility of any form of political relationship across the Strait, Kerry's statement actively rejected the "one country two systems" approach and as such bodes well for Taiwan.
"Kerry's remark rules out an option that is not in Taiwan's favor," Lo explained.
Asked whether Kerry's rejection of the "one country two systems" model in Taiwan could point toward a new direction in the US' cross-strait policy, however, Huang evoked the oldest rule in the book.
"In international politics, the only principle that always holds true is the AIP principle, the `Anything is Possible' principle," Huang said. "Smart intellectuals never make predictions," he joked.
Lo meanwhile said that the US' policies would depend on developments in Taiwan and China and that despite recent cross-strait events, the US would continue to work to uphold the status quo.
"The general framework of US policy will remain unchanged, but the Bush team will most likely be more supportive of Taiwan in terms of interpretation and implementation under the framework," Lo said.
However, Lo admitted that a reshuffling of the Bush team could result in changes.
"The Bush team this term has been the best ever for Taiwan. I doubt that a new team would be as supportive," he said.
In addition, whether Powell's recent remarks indicate a modification of the Bush administration's stance is also an open-ended question.
However, no matter what the results of Tuesday's election are, experts pointed to a remaking and rethinking of current cross-strait policies in light of recent developments in Asia and in the US.
Alexander Huang suggested that cross-strait relations would receive a thorough review and a lot more discussion after the US elections, and as the Beijing Olympics near. The discussions would begin to look at cross-strait relations in a new light.
"Cross-strait relations are in a new era, a new stage. [There will be] more and more discussion about the `one China' policy and systems that are different," Huang said, pointing to discussion as to whether the peace and stability framework brought up by both Taiwan and China reflected a concept of an interim agreement formulated by Kenneth Lieberthal, former US senior director for Asian affairs on the National Security Council and assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs.
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