The chances of Taipei being hit by a major earthquake with a magnitude of 5.5 or greater are slim, given that fracture zones under the Taipei basin are relatively much smaller and shorter than most faults found elsewhere in Taiwan, a seismologist with the Central Weather Bureau said yesterday.
Hsin Tsai-chin (
Quoting bureau tallies on earthquake history in the Taiwan area, Hsin said that the Taipei basin experiences an average of 12 earthquakes per month, although most of these are imperceptible except to seismological monitoring instruments.
This figure is much smaller relative to those recorded in other areas around Taiwan. For example, Hsin said, Hualien in eastern Taiwan experiences about 400 earthquakes per month, although most of them are also imperceptible.
Only two earthquakes larger than magnitude 3.0 with their epicenter located in the Taipei basin were recorded over the past 10 years -- one with a magnitude of 3.76, which occurred in 1992, and another of magnitude 3.7 in 1997, Hsin added.
Nevertheless, he said, the Taipei area could be hit by major earthquakes that are centered in other areas in Taiwan, much like the magnitude 7.3 earthquake of Sept. 21, 1999, which was the deadliest in five decades in Taiwan, killing 2,415 people and injuring more than 10,000 others.
The 921 Earthquake sent a tectonic shock north to Taipei, where the intensity was registered as 4.0, one of the strongest in hundreds of years.
The epicenter of the 921 earthquake was in the Chelungpu Fault, which has a length of over 80km, Hsin said.
According to bureau archives on seismological activity, the Taipei basin gradually settled after a magnitude 5.5 temblor occurred in April 1694 during the Kanghsi period of the Ching dynasty. Immediately after that quake, a lake was created in the heart of Taipei, with sea water pouring into the area from an opening in today's Tamshui River.
Hsin made the remarks in response to concerns expressed by Taipei residents after a magnitude 4.1 earthquake jolted northern Taiwan at 10:04pm Saturday.
That quake, centered 6.6km southeast of Taipei at a depth of 8.8km, had an intensity of 3.0 in Taipei City, but caused no damage or injuries anywhere, bureau seismologists reported.
The jolt came a few hours after several powerful quakes rattled northwestern Japan over a span of two hours starting at 5:56pm Saturday. Bureau seismologists said that the Taipei temblor had nothing to do with the earthquakes in Japan.
A magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred off Taiwan's eastern coast Oct. 15, marking the strongest temblor to shake Taiwan since Sept. 21, 1999, the seismologists said.
The quake, centered about 110km off the coast from Ilan City at a depth of 59km beneath the surface of the sea, was also the third strongest "undersea" earthquake since Taiwan began keeping firefighting records in the early 20th century. No major damage was reported, and only two people were slightly injured.
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