The year-end presidential election in the US is pivotal to cross-strait relations, since the US is playing the role of a friendly mediator, supervisor and insurer of President Chen Shui-bian's (
In addition, although the military confidence-building mechanism may not solve all problems concerning cross-strait security, it serves as an "anti-inflammation powder" to minimize the risks of military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait.
Political observers made these remarks yesterday morning at a seminar to discuss cross-strait relations.
Lin Cheng-yi (林正義), a research fellow at the Academia Sinica, spoke on the topic of "The US' role in the cross-strait peace-and-stability framework."
According to Lin, cross-strait relations would enter a new phase if Democratic candidate Senator John Kerry were elected as US president, because the US government's cross-strait policy would then be expected to swing back to a stance similar to that of the Clinton administration.
"Proposals such as signing the fourth communique with China and urging Taipei and Beijing to ink interim agreements might eventually materialize, and [the US] will probably urge both sides to engage in cross-strait dialogue," he said.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government has to brace itself to deal with proposals like "one China, two systems" or "one China, three systems," which were trumpeted by Republicans during the Clinton administration, Lin said.
No matter who the next US president will be, Lin said, the US government would continue to help improve the environment for cross-strait dialogue and encourage both sides to sit down and talk in a bid to avoid a crisis.
While the US government has been meddling in cross-strait relations, its role should be restricted to mediation, not negotiation, Lin said.
The US government, however, seems reluctant to take up the role as a mediator. In the "six assurances" the Reagan administration gave Taipei in July 1982, the US promised that it would not play a mediation role between China and Taiwan, nor exert pressure on Taipei to enter into negotiations with Beijing. It also pledged not to set a date for the ending of arms sales to Taiwan, not to consult with China on arms sales, not revise the Taiwan Relations Act and not change its position regarding Taiwan's sovereignty.
The "six assurances" were part of the Reagan administration's efforts to soften the blow to Taiwan after the US and China signed the 817 Communique, which called for a reduction of US arms sales to Taiwan.
While Taipei and Beijing are the key players in the establishment of a dynamic peace-and-stability framework for cross-strait interactions, Lin said that the US should play a supporting role in the game.
"Whether the US would eventually become the director and dominate the game depends on how much effort both sides put in," Lin said.
The peace-and-stability framework could be an "interim agreement," a modus vivendi (practical compromise) or a "peace arrangement," but never an agreement similar to the Hong Kong model of "one China, two systems" with the presumption of ultimate unification with China, Lin said.
"The `interim agreement' or `peace agreement' is not an ultimate resolution. Both sides should exercise individual creativity to look for possible solutions to ease cross-strait tension. Although the establishment of the peace-and-stability framework may not solve all cross-strait problems, it is bound to help the US government prop up its domination in the Asia-Pacific region," he said.
Talking on the topic of a military confidence-building mechanism, former senior advisor to the National Security Council Shu Chin-chiang (蘇進強) said that no interaction means no mutual trust, and no mutual trust means no security.
"It takes a tremendous amount of time and effort to establish the mechanism," Shu said. "Its ultimate purpose is not about unification with China or Taiwan's independence, but about cross-strait security and regional stability. Mutual trust and consensus would then develop should both sides find common interests."
The idea of the military confidence-building mechanism was first introduced by former president Lee Teng-hui (
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