Fri, Mar 19, 2004 page2

• Commentators back referendum: China made referendum an international problem

  Four years ago, journalists and academics from around the world came to observe a presidential election in a budding democratic nation. Now, four years after the nation's first transfer of power, the dynamism of Taiwan's democracy has been enhanced by the holding of the nation's first referendum. The 'Taipei Times,' along with Taiwan Heart, the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy, and the Institute for National Development, yesterday hosted the symposium ``Implications of the presidential election and referendum for Taiwan's democracy'' to provide foreign political observers and media representatives with an opportunity to analyze these crucial steps in Taiwan's political history.

  • By Joy Su / STAFF REPORTER
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  China is no longer treating tomorrow's referendum as an internal matter but as an international one, according to political experts speaking on the impact of tomorrow's elections and referendum on cross-strait affairs.

  "For so many years, Beijing's attitude was [the referendum] is an internal affair, or they would say [it] was an internal matter with international implications. But now, they're going around asking everyone to interfere in their internal affairs," said Thomas Gold, an associate professor of sociology at the University of California at Berkeley.

  

  Speakers at the conference held at the Taipei Westin Hotel yesterday.

  PHOTO: GEORGE TSORNG, TAIPEI TIMES

  Michael Hsiao (蕭新煌), a policy advisor to President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), said that China had facilitated the internationalization of the referendum and cross-strait issues.

  

  PHOTO: GEORGE TSORNG, TAIPEI TIMES

  "The Taiwan issue used to be a domestic issue, but now China is going door-to-door. China is going to the European Union, Japan, Southeast Asia, saying Taiwan is upsetting the status quo. Thus, China has helped to internationalize this issue, and it will not be international for just one month. The issue is now international in [its own] context," Hsiao said.

  However, international pressure, especially from the US and China, had also been a factor in shaping the final wording of the referendum questions.

  "They've really watered down the language [of the questions] ... The struggle over that language is a way of trying to present a more acceptable policy to the people of Taiwan and to the outside world. They want a policy which is more acceptable but also encapsulates what they want to get across -- that Taiwan is independent," Gold said.

  "Taiwan is limit-testing. They are testing limits and seeing what they can get away with," Gold said.

  However, John Clark, director of the Center for Central European and Eurasian Studies at the Hudson Institute, pointed out that the process of the referendum itself, whatever the result, was China's primary concern.

  "From the point of view of China, the small aspects of democracy are not as important. It is the very idea of a referendum that they are opposed to," Clark said.

  Clark also expressed doubts that the results of tomorrow's election could lead to pressure from China similar to that exerted before the 1996 poll.

  As to the impact of a pan-blue win in the election, experts highlighted the restrictions that Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) would face as democratically elected leaders.

  "Beijing is mistaken in assuming that if the pan-blue camp wins then that is going to open the door to a resolution of cross-strait relations. Taiwan is a democracy and no leader of Taiwan can unilaterally just decide on behalf of the people here what Taiwan's relations are going to be with the mainland, [not on] such a serious issue as that," Gold said.

  "In order to be elected here you have to walk a delicate balance, proving you're bona fide, that you're legitimate, that you qualify to speak on behalf of the people here. You have to show that you have roots," Gold said.

  Hsiao also argued that the referendum would facilitate negotiations with China, giving clarity to Taiwan's stance on the issue.

  "The DPP [Democratic Progressive Party] is very clear on the cross-strait issue. China is very clear too. But Lien and Soong don't want to show their stance," Hsiao said.

  "If China is banking on Lien and Soong for a milestone in cross-strait negotiations, I'd say it's a myth," Hsiao said.

  However, whether the referendum would lend legitimacy to Taiwan's leaders in cross-strait affairs depended on whether it received the required response.

  "I think if the referendum is invalid, the DPP will have to give it a political cast rather than say independence is no longer legitimate. They'll have to say that the pan-blue camp subverted the issue," Clark said.

  Gold said that even an invalid referendum result would not be the end of the matter from the point of view of the pan-green camp.

  "Even if the referendum is invalid, if the majority votes in favor of the referendum, [Chen] can say `there has been a certain amount of confusion, but among the people who did vote, there is strong support for our policies,'" Gold said.
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