Several leaders of political factions within the DPP are saying that President Chen Shui-bian (
"Over the past half year, President Chen Shui-bian's every move and strategy has tempted the outside to engage in a guessing game. The president's aides have also coordinated the release of messages, causing the media to list Taipei County Commissioner Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌), Mainland Affairs Council Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), Premier Yu Shyi-kun and Council for Hakka Affairs Chairwoman Yeh Chu-lan (葉菊蘭) as possible running mates," said DPP legislator Hong Chi-chang (洪奇昌).
"The president's strategy is very clear: The first step is to encourage possible candidates to work hard and compete with each other. This can increase the DPP's chances in the election. Secondly, [he is] hinting to the outside world that he is not preparing to name Vice President Annette Lu," Hong said.
Chen has praised these people in turn at different occasions, thereby keeping the media guessing. However, in August, when the perception began to form that Su would be Chen's running mate, Su's opinion poll ratings slipped following the Luchou fire and the death of a contestant in a stair-climbing race at the county government building.
"According to undisclosed public opinion polls, the gap between a Chen-Su ticket and a Chen-Lu ticket has narrowed from 3 to 5 percentage points to just 1 to 2 percentage points," a presidential aide said.
The aide said that since Su can no longer boost Chen's support base, this can no longer serve as a motivation to persuade Lu to give up her bid for another term, so the president decided to return to square one and re-evaluate the situation.
"That was why President Chen last week deliberately praised Lu during a temple visit and when he met the Gambian president at the [Double Ten Day] banquet. The president is merely putting Lu back into his list of candidates. This does not mean he has decided to choose Lu," the aide said.
But many faction leaders within the DPP have expressed great unhappiness about this. Twenty-nine legislators have signed a petition proposing three suggestions in the hope that the president will re-evaluate the impact of his choice of a running mate in the election. People who signed the petition have said that they were simply opposing Lu.
"`Pro-Lu' and `anti-Lu' camps have taken shape in the DPP. The New Tide faction is an anti-Lu stronghold, while the Welfare State faction makes up the mainstay of pro-Lu people," DPP legislator Lee Wen-chung (
"Even though the anti-Lu faction currently has a louder voice, the pro-Lu factions have already decided to join hands and launch a strategy of `encircling the center' by mobilizing grassroots supporters," Lee said.
According to Lee the reason for opposing Lu is very clear: the Chen-Lu ticket has a relatively low support base, and "Lu entirely ignored team [work]. She does not coordinate with each faction; instead, she always stirs up controversies for others to clean up. Support for Lu within the party is mainly due to considerations of factional balance and worries that Lu may become a troublemaker if she is not nominated, and become a time bomb waiting to explode in the presidential election," he said.
According to DPP sources, Lu planned to publish three books at the end of the year, one of which would contain behind-the-scenes stories of Chen's political maneuvers within the party and policy-making fiascos over the past three-and-a-half years. This information could be highly damaging to the DPP, but many party heavyweights, including Lee, suspect that Chen may nominate Lu again simply because of the book.
Word has also been circulating in the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) that former president Lee Teng-hui (
Although both Chen's Justice Alliance and the New Tide faction, which now controls the largest share of government and party resources, oppose the nomination of Lu, Kaohsiung mayor Frank Hsieh (
Senior political columnist Hu Wen-huei (胡文輝) has said that the pro-Lu factions are mainly moti-vated by the fact that they do not want Chen to create the appearance of picking a successor by choosing Su or other powerful people in the party. They therefore support Lu with all their heart. This will maintain the status quo among the party factions, which will once again vie for supremacy when Chen steps down.
"The president hopes to boost his chances in the election by playing up the running mate issue, but the situation has gradually turned into vicious inter-party wrangling. A-bian must now consider the harm of an internal backlash. He is also under pressure to make a decision on his running mate soon. There must be a clear development on the issue when the president returns from his diplomatic trip in November. Otherwise, Chen will face a massive backlash if he drags the issue out until December," Hu said.
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